Wednesday, July 30, 2003
Cool the Pessimism
7/30
The Economy and the Election:
Took some time away from blogging...on Martha’s Vineyard. Hard not to notice the quiet; locals almost grudgingly admitted that it was thus far a slow summer. Could it be the economy?
The media focus is usually on national unemployment, inflation stats. But, we are most aware of the states’ predicament. Could the fact that the states are awash in red ink be a factor? The NY Times ran a major piece on the ink [Louis Uchitelle] that explained the two year problem, as the states have gradually cut well over 20 billion from their budgets.
Just three years ago, the states were still a plus for the economy. While the private sector had begun to limp, state spending had remained strong and so had revenues, despite cuts in tax rates in several states.
Today the opposite is happening, and that makes the states a net minus for the national economy. Without that reversal, some economists say, the economy would probably be growing at an annual rate of more than 3 percent, enough to create jobs rather than eliminate them.
And, it will not get significantly better in the coming months. The Bushies are putting Bush and the Cabinet out on tour to build confidence in the economy, but we have more than a confidence problem. And, to understate, the Occupations are not going well, and the misrepresentations, deceptions, lies are finally getting attention.
So, why are so many still pessimistic about beating Bush in ‘04?
That’s been my impression for quite a while, and I undoubtedly fed it when these blogs were filled with alarming news. Even if that news didn’t reflect well on Bush, it fed alarm, which often triggers pessimism, then, for some, defeatism and apathy. So, it’s not so surprising that a zogby poll [zogby.com] reveals that
More than two-thirds (69%) of the Democratic and Independent likely primary voters surveyed said it is likely that President George W. Bush will be re-elected, regardless of how they plan to vote. In March polling nationwide, 56% of the respondents thought he will be re-elected.
The pessimism must stop. As often stated, the media have given Bush all but a free ride, and from the outset have often mocked the Democrats for having non-entity candidates, even faulting them for having too many. (Damn that democracy!) Our job is clear: trumpet progressive issues and values, (no, Dean is not a progressive, but …), and attack the credibility / truthfulness of the Administration. Bush is vulnerable.
BTW: That zogby poll noted that in recent weeks Dean has gained nationally, Lieberman has lost, and everyone else remained basically static; Gephardt, Lieberman and Dean were tied, though far behind "Undecided."
Tour Protests: Wednesday’s NY Times had a critical and entertaining view of “Tax-Cut Tour 2003,” [Elizabeth Bumiller] noting that the Cabinet secretaries presented to “an edgy and often skeptical public.” Best of all was the local protest:
A protest bus followed the secretaries’ bus throughout the day. Hired by Wisconsin Citizen Action, it contained some two dozen people who waved placards at each stop from Milwaukee to Green Bay to Wausau, saying “Read Bush’s Lips: No New Jobs.”
Action: Letter to the Editor: Another to imitate (from the Detroit Free Press)
Tax refund no reason to cheer
July 29, 2003
My wife and I will soon receive a sizeable income-tax refund. We will receive it as a result of the tax-cut legislation recently passed by Congress at President George W. Bush's urging.
We don't need the money, and we won't feel good about receiving it. We have been appalled by the Bush administration's massive tax cuts, which will provide little or no relief to the masses, starve our federal government of badly needed funds and cause our national debt to balloon. We believe these tax cuts were politically motivated and fiscally irresponsible.
We have decided to spend every cent of our refund toward one end: seeing that Bush is not re-elected. We probably will donate some of the money to MoveOn.org. We might donate some to the Democratic National Committee. We will put aside at least half of it for a year, then donate it to whomever the Democratic Party nominates to oppose Bush.
We believe our country would be better off with a president who looks out for the economic interests of all citizens (not just the very rich), acts in a fiscally responsible manner and refuses to shortchange future generations.
And we're going to put our tax-refund money where our mouths are.
Ronald G. Carpenter Ann Arbor
What’s Happening: Iraq:
Pessimism: The spin– we’ve caught the sons, we’re hot on the trail of the father.
The reality: Some admissions coming from the Bushies that the light at the end of the tunnel is not within view. Steven Barr of the Washington Post demonstrates the growing skepticism in the major media, noting that killing Qusai and Odai may not have done the trick.
Indeed, it is possible that those operations are designed to continue without centralized leadership. Bringing the guerrillas under control could be a daunting task, but the current disarray within the Bush administration makes it much harder to achieve.
Help! Seeking help from our minor allies, the U.S. has agreed to fund a peacekeeping auxiliary force led by Poland. $200 million will be used to cover meals and medical care as well as other support costs, and another $30 to 40 million will be spent on airlift costs to move the 9,000-member division to Iraq. (The Washington Post [Gerald Martineau])
Blair et al Sued The BBC [Richard Galpin] reported that a lawsuit was filed with the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague, charging Blair and other senior members of the government and military for breaching international law via the attack on Iraq.
Anger: Momentum seems to have been lost in the p.r. battle. Our notorious Task Force 20 apparently shot up the Mansur district of Baghdad. The Guardian [Jamie Wilson] reports that "rage" resulted from five innocent civilians dying in a botched raid on suspected Saddamites
We consider the Americans now as war criminals," said Mahmoud al-Baghdadi, a 32-year-old baker. "They claim to be fighting terrorism, but they cannot defend freedom by killing disabled people."
Yaqdan Kadhem, a waiter, said that before he had felt sympathy for the Americans, but now he supported the attacks on US troops. "Until now I was against Saddam Hussein, but now I hate the Americans for what they did yesterday."
U.S. to Press: Cool it. I had noted the ABC report where soldiers sounded off against Rumsfeld et al. ["If Donald Rumsfeld were here, I’d ask for his resignation;" And, "I’ve got my own Most Wanted List... The Aces in my deck are Paul Bremer, Donald Rumsfeld, George Bush, and Paul Wolfowitz"]. Fred Kaplan at slate.com explains that the embedding of reporters has thus ceased.
What’s Happening: Afghanistan:
We did so much for Afghan women; now, reports via a Human Rights Watch report catalogue a return to war lordism that results in women being forced to wear a burqa once again.[Washington Post, April Witt] The bulk of the article warns of the impact of the general lawlessness, fear and media censorship, and quotes a prominent Afghan, “The warlords themselves, of course, are ultimately to blame. . . . But the United States in particular bears much responsibility for the actions of those they have propelled to power."
Previously I’ve noted the resurgence of the Taliban, how U.S. political and military leaders have sought Taliban “help” in promoting stability. Eurasianet.org [Ahmed Rashid] further documents their strength and strategy: According to the top US general in Afghanistan, Taliban fighters and affiliated Islamic militants have divided eastern Afghanistan into three zones for launching attacks. Meanwhile, al Qaeda is offering bounties for killing or capturing US troops.
Bush in Africa: Africans were amazed at the chutzpa of the Bush entourage making use of their continent for photo ops. Here, skepticism as to promises of aid or intervention has been well placed. Nicholas Kristof of the NY Times leads the way:
…it looks as if Mr. Bush's Africa policy may be no more than a symbolic one, full of ringing sound bites and hollow pledges. Mr. Bush refused to ask Congress for funds to pay fully for his AIDS program. And his Africa trip had a check-the-box quality, suggesting it was more about domestic politics than Africa itself.
Worst of all, with Monrovia (named for James Monroe) now collapsing into killing and cholera, Mr. Bush has sent a symbolic presence to the waters off Monrovia for possible deployment later.
Africa needs a lot of things, but symbols aren't high on the list. Liberian children are not being slaughtered offshore, but on the ground, and that's where troops are needed. Sending troops to Liberian waters is a waffle, a gesture that saves no lives.
Iran: Ally in the “War on Terror”?
A fascinating note. Intent on demonizing Iran, the Bush Administration may be missing an opportunity to apprehend several reputed brass of al-Qaeda. Michael Theodoulou of the Christian Science Monitor reports that Sulaiman Abu Ghaith and other key al-Qaeda have been held in Iran. Theodoulou writes:
By handing over some of Osama bin Laden's closest associates, Iran is in a position to deal a major blow to his network. And Iran is keen to co-operate, both to help ease tensions with Washington and because the Islamic republic regards Al Qaeda as a bitter enemy, analysts say.
But progress is being complicated on several fronts. The Bush administration's criticism of Iran's nuclear facilities and of support of Palestinian militant groups means any direct handover of suspects to the US is unlikely.
-R
The Economy and the Election:
Took some time away from blogging...on Martha’s Vineyard. Hard not to notice the quiet; locals almost grudgingly admitted that it was thus far a slow summer. Could it be the economy?
The media focus is usually on national unemployment, inflation stats. But, we are most aware of the states’ predicament. Could the fact that the states are awash in red ink be a factor? The NY Times ran a major piece on the ink [Louis Uchitelle] that explained the two year problem, as the states have gradually cut well over 20 billion from their budgets.
Just three years ago, the states were still a plus for the economy. While the private sector had begun to limp, state spending had remained strong and so had revenues, despite cuts in tax rates in several states.
Today the opposite is happening, and that makes the states a net minus for the national economy. Without that reversal, some economists say, the economy would probably be growing at an annual rate of more than 3 percent, enough to create jobs rather than eliminate them.
And, it will not get significantly better in the coming months. The Bushies are putting Bush and the Cabinet out on tour to build confidence in the economy, but we have more than a confidence problem. And, to understate, the Occupations are not going well, and the misrepresentations, deceptions, lies are finally getting attention.
So, why are so many still pessimistic about beating Bush in ‘04?
That’s been my impression for quite a while, and I undoubtedly fed it when these blogs were filled with alarming news. Even if that news didn’t reflect well on Bush, it fed alarm, which often triggers pessimism, then, for some, defeatism and apathy. So, it’s not so surprising that a zogby poll [zogby.com] reveals that
More than two-thirds (69%) of the Democratic and Independent likely primary voters surveyed said it is likely that President George W. Bush will be re-elected, regardless of how they plan to vote. In March polling nationwide, 56% of the respondents thought he will be re-elected.
The pessimism must stop. As often stated, the media have given Bush all but a free ride, and from the outset have often mocked the Democrats for having non-entity candidates, even faulting them for having too many. (Damn that democracy!) Our job is clear: trumpet progressive issues and values, (no, Dean is not a progressive, but …), and attack the credibility / truthfulness of the Administration. Bush is vulnerable.
BTW: That zogby poll noted that in recent weeks Dean has gained nationally, Lieberman has lost, and everyone else remained basically static; Gephardt, Lieberman and Dean were tied, though far behind "Undecided."
Tour Protests: Wednesday’s NY Times had a critical and entertaining view of “Tax-Cut Tour 2003,” [Elizabeth Bumiller] noting that the Cabinet secretaries presented to “an edgy and often skeptical public.” Best of all was the local protest:
A protest bus followed the secretaries’ bus throughout the day. Hired by Wisconsin Citizen Action, it contained some two dozen people who waved placards at each stop from Milwaukee to Green Bay to Wausau, saying “Read Bush’s Lips: No New Jobs.”
Action: Letter to the Editor: Another to imitate (from the Detroit Free Press)
Tax refund no reason to cheer
July 29, 2003
My wife and I will soon receive a sizeable income-tax refund. We will receive it as a result of the tax-cut legislation recently passed by Congress at President George W. Bush's urging.
We don't need the money, and we won't feel good about receiving it. We have been appalled by the Bush administration's massive tax cuts, which will provide little or no relief to the masses, starve our federal government of badly needed funds and cause our national debt to balloon. We believe these tax cuts were politically motivated and fiscally irresponsible.
We have decided to spend every cent of our refund toward one end: seeing that Bush is not re-elected. We probably will donate some of the money to MoveOn.org. We might donate some to the Democratic National Committee. We will put aside at least half of it for a year, then donate it to whomever the Democratic Party nominates to oppose Bush.
We believe our country would be better off with a president who looks out for the economic interests of all citizens (not just the very rich), acts in a fiscally responsible manner and refuses to shortchange future generations.
And we're going to put our tax-refund money where our mouths are.
Ronald G. Carpenter Ann Arbor
What’s Happening: Iraq:
Pessimism: The spin– we’ve caught the sons, we’re hot on the trail of the father.
The reality: Some admissions coming from the Bushies that the light at the end of the tunnel is not within view. Steven Barr of the Washington Post demonstrates the growing skepticism in the major media, noting that killing Qusai and Odai may not have done the trick.
Indeed, it is possible that those operations are designed to continue without centralized leadership. Bringing the guerrillas under control could be a daunting task, but the current disarray within the Bush administration makes it much harder to achieve.
Help! Seeking help from our minor allies, the U.S. has agreed to fund a peacekeeping auxiliary force led by Poland. $200 million will be used to cover meals and medical care as well as other support costs, and another $30 to 40 million will be spent on airlift costs to move the 9,000-member division to Iraq. (The Washington Post [Gerald Martineau])
Blair et al Sued The BBC [Richard Galpin] reported that a lawsuit was filed with the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague, charging Blair and other senior members of the government and military for breaching international law via the attack on Iraq.
Anger: Momentum seems to have been lost in the p.r. battle. Our notorious Task Force 20 apparently shot up the Mansur district of Baghdad. The Guardian [Jamie Wilson] reports that "rage" resulted from five innocent civilians dying in a botched raid on suspected Saddamites
We consider the Americans now as war criminals," said Mahmoud al-Baghdadi, a 32-year-old baker. "They claim to be fighting terrorism, but they cannot defend freedom by killing disabled people."
Yaqdan Kadhem, a waiter, said that before he had felt sympathy for the Americans, but now he supported the attacks on US troops. "Until now I was against Saddam Hussein, but now I hate the Americans for what they did yesterday."
U.S. to Press: Cool it. I had noted the ABC report where soldiers sounded off against Rumsfeld et al. ["If Donald Rumsfeld were here, I’d ask for his resignation;" And, "I’ve got my own Most Wanted List... The Aces in my deck are Paul Bremer, Donald Rumsfeld, George Bush, and Paul Wolfowitz"]. Fred Kaplan at slate.com explains that the embedding of reporters has thus ceased.
What’s Happening: Afghanistan:
We did so much for Afghan women; now, reports via a Human Rights Watch report catalogue a return to war lordism that results in women being forced to wear a burqa once again.[Washington Post, April Witt] The bulk of the article warns of the impact of the general lawlessness, fear and media censorship, and quotes a prominent Afghan, “The warlords themselves, of course, are ultimately to blame. . . . But the United States in particular bears much responsibility for the actions of those they have propelled to power."
Previously I’ve noted the resurgence of the Taliban, how U.S. political and military leaders have sought Taliban “help” in promoting stability. Eurasianet.org [Ahmed Rashid] further documents their strength and strategy: According to the top US general in Afghanistan, Taliban fighters and affiliated Islamic militants have divided eastern Afghanistan into three zones for launching attacks. Meanwhile, al Qaeda is offering bounties for killing or capturing US troops.
Bush in Africa: Africans were amazed at the chutzpa of the Bush entourage making use of their continent for photo ops. Here, skepticism as to promises of aid or intervention has been well placed. Nicholas Kristof of the NY Times leads the way:
…it looks as if Mr. Bush's Africa policy may be no more than a symbolic one, full of ringing sound bites and hollow pledges. Mr. Bush refused to ask Congress for funds to pay fully for his AIDS program. And his Africa trip had a check-the-box quality, suggesting it was more about domestic politics than Africa itself.
Worst of all, with Monrovia (named for James Monroe) now collapsing into killing and cholera, Mr. Bush has sent a symbolic presence to the waters off Monrovia for possible deployment later.
Africa needs a lot of things, but symbols aren't high on the list. Liberian children are not being slaughtered offshore, but on the ground, and that's where troops are needed. Sending troops to Liberian waters is a waffle, a gesture that saves no lives.
Iran: Ally in the “War on Terror”?
A fascinating note. Intent on demonizing Iran, the Bush Administration may be missing an opportunity to apprehend several reputed brass of al-Qaeda. Michael Theodoulou of the Christian Science Monitor reports that Sulaiman Abu Ghaith and other key al-Qaeda have been held in Iran. Theodoulou writes:
By handing over some of Osama bin Laden's closest associates, Iran is in a position to deal a major blow to his network. And Iran is keen to co-operate, both to help ease tensions with Washington and because the Islamic republic regards Al Qaeda as a bitter enemy, analysts say.
But progress is being complicated on several fronts. The Bush administration's criticism of Iran's nuclear facilities and of support of Palestinian militant groups means any direct handover of suspects to the US is unlikely.
-R
