Friday, August 01, 2003
TOLD YOU SO!
8/1
Annan Warns of World Crisis: Spoke the Secretary General: "Many of us sense that we are living through a crisis of the international system," that the Iraqi and African crises "force us to ask ourselves whether the institutions and methods we are accustomed to are really adequate to deal with all the stresses of the last couple of years. He added, without glee, "I did warn those who were bashing the U.N. that they had to be careful because they may need the U.N. soon."
What's Happening: Iraq:
Pessimism: General Sanchez acknowledged the growing sophistication of the resistance's technology; Army Chief Peter Schoomaker confirmed analyst-activist Chuck Palson's math-based observation of several weeks ago that our troops are inadequate to deal with our imperialist appetite. "But I'm going to take a little risk here and I'm going to tell you that, you know, intuitively I think we need more people." Former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, now-luminary Joseph Wilson predicted that the situation will worsen in Iraq over the next year, facilitating the Administration's temptation to start another "war." The deaths continue. The Administration tries to counter by emphasizing the hunt for Saddam, an appealing, overly hackneyed story line and the "progress" on the WMD front, while shifting its rationale for the war to ‘stabilizing the Middle East.’
In a report by the Washington Post’s Rajiv Chandrasekaran, one learns of an attempt to co-exist, at least in Fallujah. Army officers were delivering formal apologies to local tribal sheiks and paid blood money for every dead and injured person who were non-combatants. Such might help to counter the stream of reports, including on this morning’s NPR Morning Edition, that relations are indeed worsening between the U.S. military and the Iraqi civilian population.
Bob Herbert in his NY Times op. ed puts out that the "Credibility of the Bush administration is approaching meltdown...Iraq is not Vietnam, where more than 58,000 Americans were killed. But it is like Vietnam in that deceptive leaders have maneuvered the country into a tragic situation that I do not believe Americans will support over time."
Informants, Traitors: The U.S. has paid a $15 million per brother reward to some anonymous Iraqi, and use our money freely to buy information, cooperation, influence, as we've always done. The Washington Post’s Anthony Shadid has the devastating flip side, of a father and brother executing a suspected informant. [From page one of today’s edition: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10829-2003Jul31.html ]
Surprise! A Survivor: Debka.com, in its weekly issue noted that Saddam not only had the two daughters currently in Jordan, but also a younger son, Ali. Ali's mother, Saddam's second wife, is from "an aristocratic Syrian-Iraqi family."
News, then, not News: First Poindexter, the Total Information Awareness head, and former Iran-contra criminal, starts up a betting parlor on terror incidents. Following some congressional calls for his resignation, Poindexter indeed has submitted his resignation, effective in 2-3 weeks. And, briefly, the Transportation Security Administration was pulling air marshals off flights because the budget couldn’t cope with overnight lodging for the marshals. The timing was so absurd, as there had just been a terror "alert" coming from the Homeland Security folk. Yes, we’ve certainly got a coordinated effort to "fight terror"…
Another confirmation: The Iraq Invasion as Distraction:
We knew this already, but now a parliamentary committee said that the war in Iraq had failed to reduce security threats against Britain and may have harmed efforts to tackle the al-Qaida terror network. (AP) And, Flynt Leverett, a former national security official in the administration, told NBC News correspondent Lisa Myers that the White House was warned that a shift of attention to Iraq would provide a respite for Osama. Leverett said that decisions were made "to take key assets, human assets, technical assets, out of theater in Afghanistan in order to position them for the campaign to unseat Saddam." As a result, he noted "al-Qaida has been able to reconstitute leadership cells in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region and, it would seem, in eastern Iran." He’s referring to Green Berets, drones and other surveillance craft being transferred.
WMD: Chief Administration 'inspector' David Kaye is confident of finding the weapons. (<em>NPR, Reuters) Kaye has been widely quoted about the "truly amazing" results the team will reveal shortly. His 1,400-strong team of American, British and Australian experts now scouring Iraq has not yet found actual biological or chemical weapons, Kay told private Senate hearings.
But there was mounting evidence of an active WMD program, he said.[suntimes.com (Chicago), David Rennie] Note a program is not an ‘imminent threat’; weapons are an ‘imminent threat.’
Yet, Walter Pincus and Kevin Sullivan wrote in the Washington Post that scientists who have been captured are not confirming the Bushies' hopes. Most graphically, Mahdi Obeidi, a previously noted nuclear scientist (who dug up centrifuge parts from his back yard) has confirmed that the infamous aluminum tubes were indeed for artillery rockets, not nuclear bombs.
Economy: Lack of foreign 'investment'. Abraham McLaughlin 's piece in the Christian Science Monitor notes that tighter restrictions on getting into this country as well as a "strong disillusionment with the US abroad" are the principal reasons for a decline in foreigners traveling to the U.S. He notes that foreign attendance at US English-language summer classes had declined 30%, the au pair influx is down 10%, and 23% fewer international patients are visiting our hospitals. (Then again, they may be hearing more about our failing health care system.
Meanwhile, this morning’s announcement undoubtedly will be termed good news, but that’s hardly surprising. From the AP: "The nation's unemployment rate declined to 6.2 percent in July as nearly half a million discouraged Americans stopped looking for a job. Payrolls were cut for the sixth month in a row…" In other words, the decline is a function of people dropping out of the labor force.
Several major media reports in the last two days trumpeted good signs that the economy is rebounding. For a different take, sans the usual cheerleading, see Paul Krugman’s piece in today’s NY Times, decrying the irresponsibility of California politicians in nurturing the current fiscal crisis, wonders,
is Washington any better than Sacramento?
Outside the Social Security system, the federal government is now running a deficit equal to a third of its spending — worse than California. The administration says it will never, ever contemplate increasing taxes; it says it will narrow the deficit through spending restraint, but has never said what spending it intends to restrain.
If the federal government isn't in crisis, that's only because — unlike state governments — it isn't obliged to balance its budget each year. And so far bond markets have been willing to give the feds the benefit of the doubt.
But the people now running the country are every bit as irresponsible as those blocking a serious response to California's crisis. And sooner or later that irresponsibility will have the usual consequences. California, here we come
Liberia:Allafrica.com notes the "all of the patients in JFK hospital in Monrovia will die this week- they have no food, no water and no medicine." Bush's statements reinforce the previous position that the fighting must stop and Charles Taylor has to leave. In other words we're waiting it out, while "monitoring" the situation
The Washington Post editorialized that "a Bush administration strategy toward that poor West African country is emerging: The president is giving the appearance of responding to the United Nations' desperate pleas for U.S. military assistance without actually providing any."
the press conference It was his ninth pathetic effort, and once again, the press was generally docile, never following up on the evasive, rambling answers. Jon Stewart (Comedy Central, 11 PM did an absolutely devastating and hilarious summary.
Again, re WMD: Bush said that the search will yield that which I strongly believe; that Saddam had a weapons program. I want to remind you, he actually used his weapons program on his own people at one point in time, which was pretty tangible evidence.
Whoa. The question is not whether Saddam EVER had a program... as in 1988-89. The question is whether he had a program in 2002-2003 that had produced weapons that constituted 'an imminent threat to the US and its allies and friends', as Bush read so many times.
And, a comment, courtesy of today’s NY Times letters-to-the-editor:
Re "President Denies He Oversold Case for War With Iraq" (front page, July 31):
President Bush let slip some crucial information at his news conference when he said, referring to Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, "In order to placate the critics and cynics about intentions of the United States, we need to produce evidence."
If the Iraqi weapons exist, we need to find them not to placate critics but to prevent them from being used for devastating attacks on the United States! The weapons that the administration described before the war could be used by whoever now possesses them to kill us by the thousands or millions.
The fact that President Bush did not express concern about this prospect, but instead described the stakes as a matter of political credibility, indicates that he privately assumes that the weapons do not exist.
ALAN M. MACROBERT
Bedford, Mass., July 31, 2003
Environment:
Many honchos are putting in time at the international environmental conference in D.C. As usual, the Administration is speaking to the need for the aforementioned 10 year study on global warming. Many amongst the other 29 countries are remarking as to this study being an excuse to delay action. Really!!
Afghanistan: It’s all in the timing. The goal: With the aid of a proposed $1 billion aid package for the Karzai government, the Bushies are aiming to look good for October, 2004 elections in Afghanistan, which, uh, coincidentally would be weeks before the U.S. presidential election. According to The Washington Post (Vernon Loeb / Glenn Kessler) the funds would be shifted from existing foreign and military aid accounts so as not to further increase the deficit.
-R
Annan Warns of World Crisis: Spoke the Secretary General: "Many of us sense that we are living through a crisis of the international system," that the Iraqi and African crises "force us to ask ourselves whether the institutions and methods we are accustomed to are really adequate to deal with all the stresses of the last couple of years. He added, without glee, "I did warn those who were bashing the U.N. that they had to be careful because they may need the U.N. soon."
What's Happening: Iraq:
Pessimism: General Sanchez acknowledged the growing sophistication of the resistance's technology; Army Chief Peter Schoomaker confirmed analyst-activist Chuck Palson's math-based observation of several weeks ago that our troops are inadequate to deal with our imperialist appetite. "But I'm going to take a little risk here and I'm going to tell you that, you know, intuitively I think we need more people." Former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, now-luminary Joseph Wilson predicted that the situation will worsen in Iraq over the next year, facilitating the Administration's temptation to start another "war." The deaths continue. The Administration tries to counter by emphasizing the hunt for Saddam, an appealing, overly hackneyed story line and the "progress" on the WMD front, while shifting its rationale for the war to ‘stabilizing the Middle East.’
In a report by the Washington Post’s Rajiv Chandrasekaran, one learns of an attempt to co-exist, at least in Fallujah. Army officers were delivering formal apologies to local tribal sheiks and paid blood money for every dead and injured person who were non-combatants. Such might help to counter the stream of reports, including on this morning’s NPR Morning Edition, that relations are indeed worsening between the U.S. military and the Iraqi civilian population.
Bob Herbert in his NY Times op. ed puts out that the "Credibility of the Bush administration is approaching meltdown...Iraq is not Vietnam, where more than 58,000 Americans were killed. But it is like Vietnam in that deceptive leaders have maneuvered the country into a tragic situation that I do not believe Americans will support over time."
Informants, Traitors: The U.S. has paid a $15 million per brother reward to some anonymous Iraqi, and use our money freely to buy information, cooperation, influence, as we've always done. The Washington Post’s Anthony Shadid has the devastating flip side, of a father and brother executing a suspected informant. [From page one of today’s edition: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10829-2003Jul31.html ]
Surprise! A Survivor: Debka.com, in its weekly issue noted that Saddam not only had the two daughters currently in Jordan, but also a younger son, Ali. Ali's mother, Saddam's second wife, is from "an aristocratic Syrian-Iraqi family."
News, then, not News: First Poindexter, the Total Information Awareness head, and former Iran-contra criminal, starts up a betting parlor on terror incidents. Following some congressional calls for his resignation, Poindexter indeed has submitted his resignation, effective in 2-3 weeks. And, briefly, the Transportation Security Administration was pulling air marshals off flights because the budget couldn’t cope with overnight lodging for the marshals. The timing was so absurd, as there had just been a terror "alert" coming from the Homeland Security folk. Yes, we’ve certainly got a coordinated effort to "fight terror"…
Another confirmation: The Iraq Invasion as Distraction:
We knew this already, but now a parliamentary committee said that the war in Iraq had failed to reduce security threats against Britain and may have harmed efforts to tackle the al-Qaida terror network. (AP) And, Flynt Leverett, a former national security official in the administration, told NBC News correspondent Lisa Myers that the White House was warned that a shift of attention to Iraq would provide a respite for Osama. Leverett said that decisions were made "to take key assets, human assets, technical assets, out of theater in Afghanistan in order to position them for the campaign to unseat Saddam." As a result, he noted "al-Qaida has been able to reconstitute leadership cells in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region and, it would seem, in eastern Iran." He’s referring to Green Berets, drones and other surveillance craft being transferred.
WMD: Chief Administration 'inspector' David Kaye is confident of finding the weapons. (<em>NPR, Reuters) Kaye has been widely quoted about the "truly amazing" results the team will reveal shortly. His 1,400-strong team of American, British and Australian experts now scouring Iraq has not yet found actual biological or chemical weapons, Kay told private Senate hearings.
But there was mounting evidence of an active WMD program, he said.[suntimes.com (Chicago), David Rennie] Note a program is not an ‘imminent threat’; weapons are an ‘imminent threat.’
Yet, Walter Pincus and Kevin Sullivan wrote in the Washington Post that scientists who have been captured are not confirming the Bushies' hopes. Most graphically, Mahdi Obeidi, a previously noted nuclear scientist (who dug up centrifuge parts from his back yard) has confirmed that the infamous aluminum tubes were indeed for artillery rockets, not nuclear bombs.
Economy: Lack of foreign 'investment'. Abraham McLaughlin 's piece in the Christian Science Monitor notes that tighter restrictions on getting into this country as well as a "strong disillusionment with the US abroad" are the principal reasons for a decline in foreigners traveling to the U.S. He notes that foreign attendance at US English-language summer classes had declined 30%, the au pair influx is down 10%, and 23% fewer international patients are visiting our hospitals. (Then again, they may be hearing more about our failing health care system.
Meanwhile, this morning’s announcement undoubtedly will be termed good news, but that’s hardly surprising. From the AP: "The nation's unemployment rate declined to 6.2 percent in July as nearly half a million discouraged Americans stopped looking for a job. Payrolls were cut for the sixth month in a row…" In other words, the decline is a function of people dropping out of the labor force.
Several major media reports in the last two days trumpeted good signs that the economy is rebounding. For a different take, sans the usual cheerleading, see Paul Krugman’s piece in today’s NY Times, decrying the irresponsibility of California politicians in nurturing the current fiscal crisis, wonders,
is Washington any better than Sacramento?
Outside the Social Security system, the federal government is now running a deficit equal to a third of its spending — worse than California. The administration says it will never, ever contemplate increasing taxes; it says it will narrow the deficit through spending restraint, but has never said what spending it intends to restrain.
If the federal government isn't in crisis, that's only because — unlike state governments — it isn't obliged to balance its budget each year. And so far bond markets have been willing to give the feds the benefit of the doubt.
But the people now running the country are every bit as irresponsible as those blocking a serious response to California's crisis. And sooner or later that irresponsibility will have the usual consequences. California, here we come
Liberia:Allafrica.com notes the "all of the patients in JFK hospital in Monrovia will die this week- they have no food, no water and no medicine." Bush's statements reinforce the previous position that the fighting must stop and Charles Taylor has to leave. In other words we're waiting it out, while "monitoring" the situation
The Washington Post editorialized that "a Bush administration strategy toward that poor West African country is emerging: The president is giving the appearance of responding to the United Nations' desperate pleas for U.S. military assistance without actually providing any."
the press conference It was his ninth pathetic effort, and once again, the press was generally docile, never following up on the evasive, rambling answers. Jon Stewart (Comedy Central, 11 PM did an absolutely devastating and hilarious summary.
Again, re WMD: Bush said that the search will yield that which I strongly believe; that Saddam had a weapons program. I want to remind you, he actually used his weapons program on his own people at one point in time, which was pretty tangible evidence.
Whoa. The question is not whether Saddam EVER had a program... as in 1988-89. The question is whether he had a program in 2002-2003 that had produced weapons that constituted 'an imminent threat to the US and its allies and friends', as Bush read so many times.
And, a comment, courtesy of today’s NY Times letters-to-the-editor:
Re "President Denies He Oversold Case for War With Iraq" (front page, July 31):
President Bush let slip some crucial information at his news conference when he said, referring to Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, "In order to placate the critics and cynics about intentions of the United States, we need to produce evidence."
If the Iraqi weapons exist, we need to find them not to placate critics but to prevent them from being used for devastating attacks on the United States! The weapons that the administration described before the war could be used by whoever now possesses them to kill us by the thousands or millions.
The fact that President Bush did not express concern about this prospect, but instead described the stakes as a matter of political credibility, indicates that he privately assumes that the weapons do not exist.
ALAN M. MACROBERT
Bedford, Mass., July 31, 2003
Environment:
Many honchos are putting in time at the international environmental conference in D.C. As usual, the Administration is speaking to the need for the aforementioned 10 year study on global warming. Many amongst the other 29 countries are remarking as to this study being an excuse to delay action. Really!!
Afghanistan: It’s all in the timing. The goal: With the aid of a proposed $1 billion aid package for the Karzai government, the Bushies are aiming to look good for October, 2004 elections in Afghanistan, which, uh, coincidentally would be weeks before the U.S. presidential election. According to The Washington Post (Vernon Loeb / Glenn Kessler) the funds would be shifted from existing foreign and military aid accounts so as not to further increase the deficit.
-R
Wednesday, July 30, 2003
Cool the Pessimism
7/30
The Economy and the Election:
Took some time away from blogging...on Martha’s Vineyard. Hard not to notice the quiet; locals almost grudgingly admitted that it was thus far a slow summer. Could it be the economy?
The media focus is usually on national unemployment, inflation stats. But, we are most aware of the states’ predicament. Could the fact that the states are awash in red ink be a factor? The NY Times ran a major piece on the ink [Louis Uchitelle] that explained the two year problem, as the states have gradually cut well over 20 billion from their budgets.
Just three years ago, the states were still a plus for the economy. While the private sector had begun to limp, state spending had remained strong and so had revenues, despite cuts in tax rates in several states.
Today the opposite is happening, and that makes the states a net minus for the national economy. Without that reversal, some economists say, the economy would probably be growing at an annual rate of more than 3 percent, enough to create jobs rather than eliminate them.
And, it will not get significantly better in the coming months. The Bushies are putting Bush and the Cabinet out on tour to build confidence in the economy, but we have more than a confidence problem. And, to understate, the Occupations are not going well, and the misrepresentations, deceptions, lies are finally getting attention.
So, why are so many still pessimistic about beating Bush in ‘04?
That’s been my impression for quite a while, and I undoubtedly fed it when these blogs were filled with alarming news. Even if that news didn’t reflect well on Bush, it fed alarm, which often triggers pessimism, then, for some, defeatism and apathy. So, it’s not so surprising that a zogby poll [zogby.com] reveals that
More than two-thirds (69%) of the Democratic and Independent likely primary voters surveyed said it is likely that President George W. Bush will be re-elected, regardless of how they plan to vote. In March polling nationwide, 56% of the respondents thought he will be re-elected.
The pessimism must stop. As often stated, the media have given Bush all but a free ride, and from the outset have often mocked the Democrats for having non-entity candidates, even faulting them for having too many. (Damn that democracy!) Our job is clear: trumpet progressive issues and values, (no, Dean is not a progressive, but …), and attack the credibility / truthfulness of the Administration. Bush is vulnerable.
BTW: That zogby poll noted that in recent weeks Dean has gained nationally, Lieberman has lost, and everyone else remained basically static; Gephardt, Lieberman and Dean were tied, though far behind "Undecided."
Tour Protests: Wednesday’s NY Times had a critical and entertaining view of “Tax-Cut Tour 2003,” [Elizabeth Bumiller] noting that the Cabinet secretaries presented to “an edgy and often skeptical public.” Best of all was the local protest:
A protest bus followed the secretaries’ bus throughout the day. Hired by Wisconsin Citizen Action, it contained some two dozen people who waved placards at each stop from Milwaukee to Green Bay to Wausau, saying “Read Bush’s Lips: No New Jobs.”
Action: Letter to the Editor: Another to imitate (from the Detroit Free Press)
Tax refund no reason to cheer
July 29, 2003
My wife and I will soon receive a sizeable income-tax refund. We will receive it as a result of the tax-cut legislation recently passed by Congress at President George W. Bush's urging.
We don't need the money, and we won't feel good about receiving it. We have been appalled by the Bush administration's massive tax cuts, which will provide little or no relief to the masses, starve our federal government of badly needed funds and cause our national debt to balloon. We believe these tax cuts were politically motivated and fiscally irresponsible.
We have decided to spend every cent of our refund toward one end: seeing that Bush is not re-elected. We probably will donate some of the money to MoveOn.org. We might donate some to the Democratic National Committee. We will put aside at least half of it for a year, then donate it to whomever the Democratic Party nominates to oppose Bush.
We believe our country would be better off with a president who looks out for the economic interests of all citizens (not just the very rich), acts in a fiscally responsible manner and refuses to shortchange future generations.
And we're going to put our tax-refund money where our mouths are.
Ronald G. Carpenter Ann Arbor
What’s Happening: Iraq:
Pessimism: The spin– we’ve caught the sons, we’re hot on the trail of the father.
The reality: Some admissions coming from the Bushies that the light at the end of the tunnel is not within view. Steven Barr of the Washington Post demonstrates the growing skepticism in the major media, noting that killing Qusai and Odai may not have done the trick.
Indeed, it is possible that those operations are designed to continue without centralized leadership. Bringing the guerrillas under control could be a daunting task, but the current disarray within the Bush administration makes it much harder to achieve.
Help! Seeking help from our minor allies, the U.S. has agreed to fund a peacekeeping auxiliary force led by Poland. $200 million will be used to cover meals and medical care as well as other support costs, and another $30 to 40 million will be spent on airlift costs to move the 9,000-member division to Iraq. (The Washington Post [Gerald Martineau])
Blair et al Sued The BBC [Richard Galpin] reported that a lawsuit was filed with the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague, charging Blair and other senior members of the government and military for breaching international law via the attack on Iraq.
Anger: Momentum seems to have been lost in the p.r. battle. Our notorious Task Force 20 apparently shot up the Mansur district of Baghdad. The Guardian [Jamie Wilson] reports that "rage" resulted from five innocent civilians dying in a botched raid on suspected Saddamites
We consider the Americans now as war criminals," said Mahmoud al-Baghdadi, a 32-year-old baker. "They claim to be fighting terrorism, but they cannot defend freedom by killing disabled people."
Yaqdan Kadhem, a waiter, said that before he had felt sympathy for the Americans, but now he supported the attacks on US troops. "Until now I was against Saddam Hussein, but now I hate the Americans for what they did yesterday."
U.S. to Press: Cool it. I had noted the ABC report where soldiers sounded off against Rumsfeld et al. ["If Donald Rumsfeld were here, I’d ask for his resignation;" And, "I’ve got my own Most Wanted List... The Aces in my deck are Paul Bremer, Donald Rumsfeld, George Bush, and Paul Wolfowitz"]. Fred Kaplan at slate.com explains that the embedding of reporters has thus ceased.
What’s Happening: Afghanistan:
We did so much for Afghan women; now, reports via a Human Rights Watch report catalogue a return to war lordism that results in women being forced to wear a burqa once again.[Washington Post, April Witt] The bulk of the article warns of the impact of the general lawlessness, fear and media censorship, and quotes a prominent Afghan, “The warlords themselves, of course, are ultimately to blame. . . . But the United States in particular bears much responsibility for the actions of those they have propelled to power."
Previously I’ve noted the resurgence of the Taliban, how U.S. political and military leaders have sought Taliban “help” in promoting stability. Eurasianet.org [Ahmed Rashid] further documents their strength and strategy: According to the top US general in Afghanistan, Taliban fighters and affiliated Islamic militants have divided eastern Afghanistan into three zones for launching attacks. Meanwhile, al Qaeda is offering bounties for killing or capturing US troops.
Bush in Africa: Africans were amazed at the chutzpa of the Bush entourage making use of their continent for photo ops. Here, skepticism as to promises of aid or intervention has been well placed. Nicholas Kristof of the NY Times leads the way:
…it looks as if Mr. Bush's Africa policy may be no more than a symbolic one, full of ringing sound bites and hollow pledges. Mr. Bush refused to ask Congress for funds to pay fully for his AIDS program. And his Africa trip had a check-the-box quality, suggesting it was more about domestic politics than Africa itself.
Worst of all, with Monrovia (named for James Monroe) now collapsing into killing and cholera, Mr. Bush has sent a symbolic presence to the waters off Monrovia for possible deployment later.
Africa needs a lot of things, but symbols aren't high on the list. Liberian children are not being slaughtered offshore, but on the ground, and that's where troops are needed. Sending troops to Liberian waters is a waffle, a gesture that saves no lives.
Iran: Ally in the “War on Terror”?
A fascinating note. Intent on demonizing Iran, the Bush Administration may be missing an opportunity to apprehend several reputed brass of al-Qaeda. Michael Theodoulou of the Christian Science Monitor reports that Sulaiman Abu Ghaith and other key al-Qaeda have been held in Iran. Theodoulou writes:
By handing over some of Osama bin Laden's closest associates, Iran is in a position to deal a major blow to his network. And Iran is keen to co-operate, both to help ease tensions with Washington and because the Islamic republic regards Al Qaeda as a bitter enemy, analysts say.
But progress is being complicated on several fronts. The Bush administration's criticism of Iran's nuclear facilities and of support of Palestinian militant groups means any direct handover of suspects to the US is unlikely.
-R
The Economy and the Election:
Took some time away from blogging...on Martha’s Vineyard. Hard not to notice the quiet; locals almost grudgingly admitted that it was thus far a slow summer. Could it be the economy?
The media focus is usually on national unemployment, inflation stats. But, we are most aware of the states’ predicament. Could the fact that the states are awash in red ink be a factor? The NY Times ran a major piece on the ink [Louis Uchitelle] that explained the two year problem, as the states have gradually cut well over 20 billion from their budgets.
Just three years ago, the states were still a plus for the economy. While the private sector had begun to limp, state spending had remained strong and so had revenues, despite cuts in tax rates in several states.
Today the opposite is happening, and that makes the states a net minus for the national economy. Without that reversal, some economists say, the economy would probably be growing at an annual rate of more than 3 percent, enough to create jobs rather than eliminate them.
And, it will not get significantly better in the coming months. The Bushies are putting Bush and the Cabinet out on tour to build confidence in the economy, but we have more than a confidence problem. And, to understate, the Occupations are not going well, and the misrepresentations, deceptions, lies are finally getting attention.
So, why are so many still pessimistic about beating Bush in ‘04?
That’s been my impression for quite a while, and I undoubtedly fed it when these blogs were filled with alarming news. Even if that news didn’t reflect well on Bush, it fed alarm, which often triggers pessimism, then, for some, defeatism and apathy. So, it’s not so surprising that a zogby poll [zogby.com] reveals that
More than two-thirds (69%) of the Democratic and Independent likely primary voters surveyed said it is likely that President George W. Bush will be re-elected, regardless of how they plan to vote. In March polling nationwide, 56% of the respondents thought he will be re-elected.
The pessimism must stop. As often stated, the media have given Bush all but a free ride, and from the outset have often mocked the Democrats for having non-entity candidates, even faulting them for having too many. (Damn that democracy!) Our job is clear: trumpet progressive issues and values, (no, Dean is not a progressive, but …), and attack the credibility / truthfulness of the Administration. Bush is vulnerable.
BTW: That zogby poll noted that in recent weeks Dean has gained nationally, Lieberman has lost, and everyone else remained basically static; Gephardt, Lieberman and Dean were tied, though far behind "Undecided."
Tour Protests: Wednesday’s NY Times had a critical and entertaining view of “Tax-Cut Tour 2003,” [Elizabeth Bumiller] noting that the Cabinet secretaries presented to “an edgy and often skeptical public.” Best of all was the local protest:
A protest bus followed the secretaries’ bus throughout the day. Hired by Wisconsin Citizen Action, it contained some two dozen people who waved placards at each stop from Milwaukee to Green Bay to Wausau, saying “Read Bush’s Lips: No New Jobs.”
Action: Letter to the Editor: Another to imitate (from the Detroit Free Press)
Tax refund no reason to cheer
July 29, 2003
My wife and I will soon receive a sizeable income-tax refund. We will receive it as a result of the tax-cut legislation recently passed by Congress at President George W. Bush's urging.
We don't need the money, and we won't feel good about receiving it. We have been appalled by the Bush administration's massive tax cuts, which will provide little or no relief to the masses, starve our federal government of badly needed funds and cause our national debt to balloon. We believe these tax cuts were politically motivated and fiscally irresponsible.
We have decided to spend every cent of our refund toward one end: seeing that Bush is not re-elected. We probably will donate some of the money to MoveOn.org. We might donate some to the Democratic National Committee. We will put aside at least half of it for a year, then donate it to whomever the Democratic Party nominates to oppose Bush.
We believe our country would be better off with a president who looks out for the economic interests of all citizens (not just the very rich), acts in a fiscally responsible manner and refuses to shortchange future generations.
And we're going to put our tax-refund money where our mouths are.
Ronald G. Carpenter Ann Arbor
What’s Happening: Iraq:
Pessimism: The spin– we’ve caught the sons, we’re hot on the trail of the father.
The reality: Some admissions coming from the Bushies that the light at the end of the tunnel is not within view. Steven Barr of the Washington Post demonstrates the growing skepticism in the major media, noting that killing Qusai and Odai may not have done the trick.
Indeed, it is possible that those operations are designed to continue without centralized leadership. Bringing the guerrillas under control could be a daunting task, but the current disarray within the Bush administration makes it much harder to achieve.
Help! Seeking help from our minor allies, the U.S. has agreed to fund a peacekeeping auxiliary force led by Poland. $200 million will be used to cover meals and medical care as well as other support costs, and another $30 to 40 million will be spent on airlift costs to move the 9,000-member division to Iraq. (The Washington Post [Gerald Martineau])
Blair et al Sued The BBC [Richard Galpin] reported that a lawsuit was filed with the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague, charging Blair and other senior members of the government and military for breaching international law via the attack on Iraq.
Anger: Momentum seems to have been lost in the p.r. battle. Our notorious Task Force 20 apparently shot up the Mansur district of Baghdad. The Guardian [Jamie Wilson] reports that "rage" resulted from five innocent civilians dying in a botched raid on suspected Saddamites
We consider the Americans now as war criminals," said Mahmoud al-Baghdadi, a 32-year-old baker. "They claim to be fighting terrorism, but they cannot defend freedom by killing disabled people."
Yaqdan Kadhem, a waiter, said that before he had felt sympathy for the Americans, but now he supported the attacks on US troops. "Until now I was against Saddam Hussein, but now I hate the Americans for what they did yesterday."
U.S. to Press: Cool it. I had noted the ABC report where soldiers sounded off against Rumsfeld et al. ["If Donald Rumsfeld were here, I’d ask for his resignation;" And, "I’ve got my own Most Wanted List... The Aces in my deck are Paul Bremer, Donald Rumsfeld, George Bush, and Paul Wolfowitz"]. Fred Kaplan at slate.com explains that the embedding of reporters has thus ceased.
What’s Happening: Afghanistan:
We did so much for Afghan women; now, reports via a Human Rights Watch report catalogue a return to war lordism that results in women being forced to wear a burqa once again.[Washington Post, April Witt] The bulk of the article warns of the impact of the general lawlessness, fear and media censorship, and quotes a prominent Afghan, “The warlords themselves, of course, are ultimately to blame. . . . But the United States in particular bears much responsibility for the actions of those they have propelled to power."
Previously I’ve noted the resurgence of the Taliban, how U.S. political and military leaders have sought Taliban “help” in promoting stability. Eurasianet.org [Ahmed Rashid] further documents their strength and strategy: According to the top US general in Afghanistan, Taliban fighters and affiliated Islamic militants have divided eastern Afghanistan into three zones for launching attacks. Meanwhile, al Qaeda is offering bounties for killing or capturing US troops.
Bush in Africa: Africans were amazed at the chutzpa of the Bush entourage making use of their continent for photo ops. Here, skepticism as to promises of aid or intervention has been well placed. Nicholas Kristof of the NY Times leads the way:
…it looks as if Mr. Bush's Africa policy may be no more than a symbolic one, full of ringing sound bites and hollow pledges. Mr. Bush refused to ask Congress for funds to pay fully for his AIDS program. And his Africa trip had a check-the-box quality, suggesting it was more about domestic politics than Africa itself.
Worst of all, with Monrovia (named for James Monroe) now collapsing into killing and cholera, Mr. Bush has sent a symbolic presence to the waters off Monrovia for possible deployment later.
Africa needs a lot of things, but symbols aren't high on the list. Liberian children are not being slaughtered offshore, but on the ground, and that's where troops are needed. Sending troops to Liberian waters is a waffle, a gesture that saves no lives.
Iran: Ally in the “War on Terror”?
A fascinating note. Intent on demonizing Iran, the Bush Administration may be missing an opportunity to apprehend several reputed brass of al-Qaeda. Michael Theodoulou of the Christian Science Monitor reports that Sulaiman Abu Ghaith and other key al-Qaeda have been held in Iran. Theodoulou writes:
By handing over some of Osama bin Laden's closest associates, Iran is in a position to deal a major blow to his network. And Iran is keen to co-operate, both to help ease tensions with Washington and because the Islamic republic regards Al Qaeda as a bitter enemy, analysts say.
But progress is being complicated on several fronts. The Bush administration's criticism of Iran's nuclear facilities and of support of Palestinian militant groups means any direct handover of suspects to the US is unlikely.
-R
