Sunday, January 25, 2004
Rumors, Rumors: The paranoic folk out there (not a value judgment; sometimes it checks out) at Die Welt reported that “unconfirmed reports” have noted that Osama bin Laden has been captured. The suspicion often voiced is that he will be held for months and then his capture will be announced during the Fall campaign.
Just reporting….
Income Inequality not an Issue?
A conservative counter-thrust has been trumpeting that the recent influx of immigrants skewed data, resulting in the mistaken conclusion that inequality was increasing. Sunday’s NY Times business section addressed this. (David Leonhardt)
In recent weeks, a new book has challenged this conventional wisdom, calling it a statistical mirage, and its striking claim has begun to receive national attention. Among native-born Americans, lower- and middle-income families have actually received proportionately bigger raises than the wealthy, according to "The Progress Paradox" (Random House), written by Gregg Easterbrook, a Washington journalist. Only a great influx of immigrants - many of them poor, but richer than they were in their home countries - has made inequality appear to widen in the statistics, Mr. Easterbrook says.
"Factor out immigration," he writes, "and the rise in American inequality disappears."
The idea has echoed from the book into the pages of The Washington Post, The Chicago Sun-Times, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times of London and BusinessWeek magazine, among other publications. It seems like one of those facts that could rewrite conventional wisdom about the American economy.
It happens, however, not to be true.
The millions of immigrants who have entered the country in recent decades have indeed made inequality look larger than it otherwise would. But even among households headed by native-born Americans, the rich have done far better than others over the past 20 years - as well as over the past 30, 40 or 50 years, according to government statistics and the economists who study them.
The reasons will sound familiar. The long bull market of the 1980's and 90's helped mainly the well off, as has the rising value of a college degree in an increasingly complicated economy. At the middle and bottom of the income distribution, meanwhile, the overseas exodus of factory jobs, the stagnation of the minimum wage, the shrinking power of labor unions, the automation of the workplace and - yes - the immigration boom have all helped keep a lid on raises.
"The fact of the matter is, income trends have favored people at the top of the income distribution, and that's true of native-borns, too," said Gary Burtless, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, whose research is cited in Mr. Easterbrook's book. "There is no data source that disagrees with that simple statement. In fact, the better the data, the more that the skew appears." http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/25/business/yourmoney/25view.html?pagewanted=print&position=
Quote from the departing David Kay:
They had stockpiles, they fought the Iranians with it, and they certainly did use it on the Kurds. But what everyone was talking about is stockpiles produced after the end of the last (1991) Gulf War and I don't think there was a large-scale production program in the '90s."
While he’s still being a tad careful, his resignation seems to indicate that despite Cheney’s assertions, no one in the administration really thinks anything will be found and that there has been no significant wmd program for more than a decade.
Democrats:
a) Polls find Kerry ahead by somewhere between 7 and 17 percent, then the others, usually Dean, then Clark/Edwards. The momentum phenomenon is at work, as Kerry has gained 15 points in South Carolina and is now a strong second to Edwards.
b) Newsweek’s poll finds 52% of voters do not want to see Bush re-elected, vs 44% that do. Striking!
Bush in the “Military”
There are so many arguments against Bush, that we need not reach for one with a shaky foundation.
Factcheck.org notes that there is no hard proof that Bush was a “deserter” from his National Guard duty, and cautions Michael Moore and others to back off the assertion, and for Clark to disavow his supporter’s (Moore) charge.
News reports, including some in the Globe , have questioned Bush's constancy as a National Guard airman at the time, but he has not been credibly accused of desertion, a serious charge. Clark should have distanced himself from the remark. http://factcheck.org/article.aspx?docID=131
Dean and Bush:
Good “fun” from blogger August Pollack, as he compares the fitness of the duo. The Dean Iowa speech, seen in context, was no worse than an enthusiastic rallying of the troops; if one listens to the tape of the event, you note that Dean had to be especially loud to be heard above the din.
So, since such a gaffe is a clear indicator that Dean is truly unfit to be the leader of the free world, here’s a helpful list of things Dean can do to remove the image that he is a bumbling, inexperienced, lackluster example of leadership:
Announce proudly that no president has ever done as much as him for human rights.
Dress up in a crotch-accentuating flight suit and land a jet on an aircraft carrier.
Brag repeatedly about a sub-standard college grade point average.
Get arrested for public rowdiness at a football game.
Attempt to recite a cliché adage at a press conference and promptly forget how it goes in the middle of saying it.
Mount, and promptly fall off, an unpowered Segway scooter.
Drop his dog in front of cameras.
Consistently mispronounce the word "nuclear."
Condescendingly mock the upcoming execution of a death row inmate.
http://www.xoverboard.com/2004_01.html#000402
What’s Happening, Iraq:
Many deaths. Not surprising that we hear that stress is reaching epidemic proportion. A report from Peter Beaumont of the Guardian:
Up to one in five of the American military personnel in Iraq will suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder, say senior forces' medical staff dealing with the psychiatric fallout of the war.
This revelation follows the disclosure last month that more than 600 US servicemen and women have been evacuated from the country for psychiatric reasons since the conflict started last March.
At least 22 US soldiers have killed themselves - a rate considered abnormally high - mostly since President George Bush declared an end to major combat on 1 May last year, These suicides have led to a high-level Department of Defence investigation, details of which will be disclosed in the next few weeks.
Although the overall suicide rate is running at an average of 13.5 per 100,000 troops, compared with a US army average of 10.5 to 11 per 100,000 in recent years, the incidence of the vast majority of suicides in the period after 1 May is statistically significant, accounting for about 7 per cent of all service deaths in Iraq. http://observer.guardian.co.uk/print/0,3858,4843790-110863,00.html
Halliburton Getting Ahead of the Curve
Halliburton has fired two employees of its Kellogg Brown & Root subsidiary, that allegedly demanded and received up to $6 million in kickbacks from a Kuwaiti company for awarding work supplying U.S. troops. The revelation comes less than a week after Halliburton was awarded a new $1.2 billion contract to boost oil production in southern Iraq.
And we doubted their integrity!
Still Some Interest in Targeting Syria Next
Jane’s reports that Rummy is urging /preparing for possible military strikes against Syria’s allies in Lebanon, part of a multi-pronged attacks against suspected militant bases. The report adds:
Sending US troops into lawless Somalia (and Lebanon) would not be new, nor is it likely to cause serious diplomatic waves. Covert US forces have periodically infiltrated the country over the past two years in order to conduct surveillance and even snatch [Al Qaeda] suspects. http://www.defensetech.org/archives/000737.html
Pakistan: Nuclear watchdog?
General Musharraf, the Pakistani President, now makes regular ‘sounds’ about stopping the traffic in nuclear secrets. From the Observer (Jason Burke)
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Musharraf, who has promised to prosecute those suspected of selling his country's nuclear secrets to Iran in the late 1980s, said he would also like to see European countries and scientists investigated for their involvement in proliferation. http://www.guardian.co.uk/pakistan/Story/0,2763,1130625,00.html
Bill Moyers’ NOW:
Bill Moyers joined the Thursday NY Times in focusing on the conservative rebellion against the Bush spending. David Keene of the American Conservative Union lamented that the increase in non-discretionary spending is twice that of Clinton’s term (5%). Yet, Keene, like other Bush supporters, notes that he will all back Bush in the election.
The other prominent focus of Moyers was the systematic attack on the Kyoto treaty by mega-bucks lobbyists for the oil industry. http://www.pbs.org/now/index.html
-R
Just reporting….
Income Inequality not an Issue?
A conservative counter-thrust has been trumpeting that the recent influx of immigrants skewed data, resulting in the mistaken conclusion that inequality was increasing. Sunday’s NY Times business section addressed this. (David Leonhardt)
In recent weeks, a new book has challenged this conventional wisdom, calling it a statistical mirage, and its striking claim has begun to receive national attention. Among native-born Americans, lower- and middle-income families have actually received proportionately bigger raises than the wealthy, according to "The Progress Paradox" (Random House), written by Gregg Easterbrook, a Washington journalist. Only a great influx of immigrants - many of them poor, but richer than they were in their home countries - has made inequality appear to widen in the statistics, Mr. Easterbrook says.
"Factor out immigration," he writes, "and the rise in American inequality disappears."
The idea has echoed from the book into the pages of The Washington Post, The Chicago Sun-Times, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times of London and BusinessWeek magazine, among other publications. It seems like one of those facts that could rewrite conventional wisdom about the American economy.
It happens, however, not to be true.
The millions of immigrants who have entered the country in recent decades have indeed made inequality look larger than it otherwise would. But even among households headed by native-born Americans, the rich have done far better than others over the past 20 years - as well as over the past 30, 40 or 50 years, according to government statistics and the economists who study them.
The reasons will sound familiar. The long bull market of the 1980's and 90's helped mainly the well off, as has the rising value of a college degree in an increasingly complicated economy. At the middle and bottom of the income distribution, meanwhile, the overseas exodus of factory jobs, the stagnation of the minimum wage, the shrinking power of labor unions, the automation of the workplace and - yes - the immigration boom have all helped keep a lid on raises.
"The fact of the matter is, income trends have favored people at the top of the income distribution, and that's true of native-borns, too," said Gary Burtless, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, whose research is cited in Mr. Easterbrook's book. "There is no data source that disagrees with that simple statement. In fact, the better the data, the more that the skew appears." http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/25/business/yourmoney/25view.html?pagewanted=print&position=
Quote from the departing David Kay:
They had stockpiles, they fought the Iranians with it, and they certainly did use it on the Kurds. But what everyone was talking about is stockpiles produced after the end of the last (1991) Gulf War and I don't think there was a large-scale production program in the '90s."
While he’s still being a tad careful, his resignation seems to indicate that despite Cheney’s assertions, no one in the administration really thinks anything will be found and that there has been no significant wmd program for more than a decade.
Democrats:
a) Polls find Kerry ahead by somewhere between 7 and 17 percent, then the others, usually Dean, then Clark/Edwards. The momentum phenomenon is at work, as Kerry has gained 15 points in South Carolina and is now a strong second to Edwards.
b) Newsweek’s poll finds 52% of voters do not want to see Bush re-elected, vs 44% that do. Striking!
Bush in the “Military”
There are so many arguments against Bush, that we need not reach for one with a shaky foundation.
Factcheck.org notes that there is no hard proof that Bush was a “deserter” from his National Guard duty, and cautions Michael Moore and others to back off the assertion, and for Clark to disavow his supporter’s (Moore) charge.
News reports, including some in the Globe , have questioned Bush's constancy as a National Guard airman at the time, but he has not been credibly accused of desertion, a serious charge. Clark should have distanced himself from the remark. http://factcheck.org/article.aspx?docID=131
Dean and Bush:
Good “fun” from blogger August Pollack, as he compares the fitness of the duo. The Dean Iowa speech, seen in context, was no worse than an enthusiastic rallying of the troops; if one listens to the tape of the event, you note that Dean had to be especially loud to be heard above the din.
So, since such a gaffe is a clear indicator that Dean is truly unfit to be the leader of the free world, here’s a helpful list of things Dean can do to remove the image that he is a bumbling, inexperienced, lackluster example of leadership:
Announce proudly that no president has ever done as much as him for human rights.
Dress up in a crotch-accentuating flight suit and land a jet on an aircraft carrier.
Brag repeatedly about a sub-standard college grade point average.
Get arrested for public rowdiness at a football game.
Attempt to recite a cliché adage at a press conference and promptly forget how it goes in the middle of saying it.
Mount, and promptly fall off, an unpowered Segway scooter.
Drop his dog in front of cameras.
Consistently mispronounce the word "nuclear."
Condescendingly mock the upcoming execution of a death row inmate.
http://www.xoverboard.com/2004_01.html#000402
What’s Happening, Iraq:
Many deaths. Not surprising that we hear that stress is reaching epidemic proportion. A report from Peter Beaumont of the Guardian:
Up to one in five of the American military personnel in Iraq will suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder, say senior forces' medical staff dealing with the psychiatric fallout of the war.
This revelation follows the disclosure last month that more than 600 US servicemen and women have been evacuated from the country for psychiatric reasons since the conflict started last March.
At least 22 US soldiers have killed themselves - a rate considered abnormally high - mostly since President George Bush declared an end to major combat on 1 May last year, These suicides have led to a high-level Department of Defence investigation, details of which will be disclosed in the next few weeks.
Although the overall suicide rate is running at an average of 13.5 per 100,000 troops, compared with a US army average of 10.5 to 11 per 100,000 in recent years, the incidence of the vast majority of suicides in the period after 1 May is statistically significant, accounting for about 7 per cent of all service deaths in Iraq. http://observer.guardian.co.uk/print/0,3858,4843790-110863,00.html
Halliburton Getting Ahead of the Curve
Halliburton has fired two employees of its Kellogg Brown & Root subsidiary, that allegedly demanded and received up to $6 million in kickbacks from a Kuwaiti company for awarding work supplying U.S. troops. The revelation comes less than a week after Halliburton was awarded a new $1.2 billion contract to boost oil production in southern Iraq.
And we doubted their integrity!
Still Some Interest in Targeting Syria Next
Jane’s reports that Rummy is urging /preparing for possible military strikes against Syria’s allies in Lebanon, part of a multi-pronged attacks against suspected militant bases. The report adds:
Sending US troops into lawless Somalia (and Lebanon) would not be new, nor is it likely to cause serious diplomatic waves. Covert US forces have periodically infiltrated the country over the past two years in order to conduct surveillance and even snatch [Al Qaeda] suspects. http://www.defensetech.org/archives/000737.html
Pakistan: Nuclear watchdog?
General Musharraf, the Pakistani President, now makes regular ‘sounds’ about stopping the traffic in nuclear secrets. From the Observer (Jason Burke)
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Musharraf, who has promised to prosecute those suspected of selling his country's nuclear secrets to Iran in the late 1980s, said he would also like to see European countries and scientists investigated for their involvement in proliferation. http://www.guardian.co.uk/pakistan/Story/0,2763,1130625,00.html
Bill Moyers’ NOW:
Bill Moyers joined the Thursday NY Times in focusing on the conservative rebellion against the Bush spending. David Keene of the American Conservative Union lamented that the increase in non-discretionary spending is twice that of Clinton’s term (5%). Yet, Keene, like other Bush supporters, notes that he will all back Bush in the election.
The other prominent focus of Moyers was the systematic attack on the Kyoto treaty by mega-bucks lobbyists for the oil industry. http://www.pbs.org/now/index.html
-R
