Friday, July 09, 2004
If we ever get a clear national debate about health care and taxes, I don't see how President Bush will win it.-Paul Krugman, today
July Surprise I: Federal Marriage Amendment Vote? Troublemaking, i.e. smart gamesmanship, from the Republicans. Kristin Lombardi for the Boston Phoenix:
IF BUSH POLITICAL strategist Karl Rove gets his way in the 2004 presidential race, the contentious issue of gay marriage will play a role in the campaign. It’s not something President Bush will necessarily tout on the national stage. Rather, the dream scenario casts gay marriage as more of a sleeper issue, always there, always lurking in the background. That way, at strategic moments Republicans can exploit the issue to fire up their base of religious conservatives, frighten those all-important undecided voters, and pummel the presumptive Democratic nominee, John Kerry, as Mr. Anti-family —thereby drawing out a pro-Bush shadow vote come November.
Call it the GOP master plan. Ever since the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court ruled last November that same-sex couples have a constitutional right to marry, most observers have expected Republican strategists to use the issue to their advantage. Their strategy became clear last month when the US Senate Republican leadership accelerated its push to amend the US Constitution to ban same-sex nuptials by defining marriage as "the union of a man and a woman." For months, Senate majority leader Bill Frist, the Tennessee Republican, had been signaling to supporters of the Federal Marriage Amendment, or FMA, that he would not schedule a vote on it before November. He even stated that he didn’t think amending the Constitution was something to rush. On June 18, though, Frist quickly changed his tune: he announced that he would schedule Senate debate and a vote on the FMA for the week of July 12 — just two weeks before the Democratic National Convention, in Boston. http://www.bostonphoenix.com/boston/news_features/top/features/documents/03965603.asp
July Surprise II: Get bin Laden! I wrote about this several weeks ago. It’s again making the rounds, and since the time is almost here… From the New Republic:
This spring, the administration significantly increased its pressure on Pakistan to kill or capture Osama bin Laden, his deputy, Ayman Al Zawahiri, or the Taliban's Mullah Mohammed Omar, all of whom are believed to be hiding in the lawless tribal areas of Pakistan. A succession of high-level American officials--from outgoing CIA Director George Tenet to Secretary of State Colin Powell to Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca to State Department counterterrorism chief Cofer Black to a top CIA South Asia official--have visited Pakistan in recent months to urge General Pervez Musharraf's government to do more in the war on terrorism. In April, Zalmay Khalilzad, the American ambassador to Afghanistan, publicly chided the Pakistanis for providing a "sanctuary" for Al Qaeda and Taliban forces crossing the Afghan border. "The problem has not been solved and needs to be solved, the sooner the better," he said...
An official who works under ISI's director, Lieutenant General Ehsan ul-Haq, informed tnr that the Pakistanis "have been told at every level that apprehension or killing of HVTs before [the] election is [an] absolute must." What's more, this source claims that Bush administration officials have told their Pakistani counterparts they have a date in mind for announcing this achievement: "The last ten days of July deadline has been given repeatedly by visitors to Islamabad and during [ul-Haq's] meetings in Washington. http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=20040719&s=aaj071904
Thank goodness they haven’t politicized the “war on terror.”
Kenny Boy:
While the White House is making the pitch that Ken Lay’s prosecution is evidence of their even-handedness, the more telling was Bush’s walking away from the media when asked about Lay at an informal question-answer period.
From the Financial Times
The rash of corporate fraud also did not appear to hurt Republicans, the traditional party of big business, in mid-term Congressional elections two years ago.
Even so, the Lay indictment could still damage the president if it adds to a perception articulated by opponents that his administration is run chiefly by and for large corporate interests, with little sympathy for ordinary voters.
The Enron link has re-emerged as the White House has been fending off allegations about its relationship with another politically-connected Texas energy company, Halliburton. Democrats have accused the administration of rewarding the energy services company formerly run by vice-president Dick Cheney with billions of dollars of wasteful contracts in Iraq.
While neither George W. Bush nor his father ever worked for Enron, the relationship with Mr Lay runs deep. Their alliance was a natural one given their overlap in Houston energy and Washington political circles. http://financialtimes.printthis.clickability.com/pt/cpt?action=cpt&title=Lay+charges+open+a+can+of+worms&expire=&urlID=10944169&fb=Y&url=http%3A%2F%2Fnews.ft.com%2Fs01%2Fservlet%2FContentServer%3Fpagename%3DFT.com%2FStoryFT%2FFullStory%26c%3DStoryFT%26cid%3D1087373572158%26p%3D1012571727291&partnerID=1743
Lay and Bush were very chummy. The record is long- business dealings in the 80’s, Bush Sr. setting up Lay with Houston business folk, Lay the Host of the Republican Convention in ’92, mammoth contributions to Junior, who helps Enron make deals in places like Tom Ridge’s Pennsylvania. Yet, the media continue to de-emphasize or ignore the connection. With the exceptions of the LA Times and the San Francisco Chronicle, most were like CNN.com, which in its large posting ignored Bush entirely. Credit to the Chicago Tribune for mentioning Lay’s comment that he was being prosecuted because of his close ties with Bush.
Edwards (continued)
Inexperience: To counter the disparagement, one should just cite Orrin Hatch’s words to G.W. Bush, from his participation in the presidential primary debates on December 6, 1999. "You've been a great governor; My only problem with you, governor, is that you've only had four and going into your fifth year of governorship. . . . Frankly, I really believe that you need more experience before you become president of the United States. That's why I'm thinking of you as a vice presidential candidate.
Gravitas: The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said Edward’s detailed strategy to combat nuclear proliferation was "the most comprehensive and far-reaching of the three proposals" advanced by the candidates. Basically, Edwards called for a new "Global Compact" to heighten security for existing nuclear facilities and material, to toughen international inspections, limit production of nuclear bomb materials and nuclear fuel, and authorize strong, immediate punishment for any nation that violates and then quits the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Cheney out? Seems tempting for the Bushies. But, the Dems should simply call for Cheney to step down. Then, Bush couldn’t do it, as he would be perceived as “caving” to Democratic wishes.
Polls:
NBC: Kerry-Edwards up 8%
Rasmussen: Kerry up 5 in Florida, up 29% in Massachusetts, up 10% in New Jersey; Bush up 18% in Texas
But it’s only early July.
Florida: Progress (Report)
Florida's top election officials conceded Tuesday that they will take no legal action to force the state's 67 election supervisors to remove nearly 48,000 voters who have been identified by the state as potentially ineligible to vote.
This means the fate of these voters, some of whom appear to have been wrongly placed on the list, will be up to the election supervisor in each county, many of whom have been hesitant so far to remove any voter from the rolls. Some supervisors have said they were unsure if they had the time or staff needed to independently verify the background of voters prior to this fall's elections, but other supervisors have moved ahead anyway.
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/state/9093023.htm?1c
Bush Money Men: The Texas Rangers:
I’m fond of talking about Bush being brought into the investment group that purchased the Rangers, then being assigned to hang with the fans. Prior to selling, several partners GAVE Bush their shares, which led to a tiny sum of about $14 million. This group went on to become major funders of Bush’s political career.
Some specifics: The tale of 3 partners who wound up ambassadors!
*Craig Stapleton: Forked over $60,500, appointed to ambassadorship of Czech Republic, 2001-03; has now returned to fundraising work for Bush.
*Mercer Reynolds III- Gave $373,173; Two years serving in Switzerland, now fundraising chair for Bush
*Jeffrey Marcus: Contributed $275,000. Appointed ambassador to Belgium, but never served, as his impending divorce led to his never showing for the job.
http://www.motherjones.com/news/outfront/2004/07/baseball.html
Bush Records Destroyed I’m not making this up.
Military records that could help establish President Bush's whereabouts during his disputed service in the Texas Air National Guard more than 30 years ago have been inadvertently destroyed, according to the Pentagon.
It said the payroll records of "numerous service members," including former First Lt. Bush, had been ruined in 1996 and 1997 by the Defense Finance and Accounting Service during a project to salvage deteriorating microfilm. No back-up paper copies could be found, it added in notices dated June 25.
The destroyed records cover three months of a period in 1972 and 1973 when Mr. Bush's claims of service in Alabama are in question.
The disclosure appeared to catch some experts, both pro-Bush and con, by surprise. Even the retired lieutenant colonel who studied Mr. Bush's records for the White House, Albert C. Lloyd of Austin, said it came as news to him. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/09/politics/campaign/09records.html?hp
What’s Happening, Iraq:
Iraq Prisons: Children?
A disturbing, as-yet not fully confirmed report in a German TV newsmagazine “Report Mainz”, that the International Red Cross had found over 100 children in coalition detention centers. Since we’ve already learned that 70 to 90% of those in those prisons are innocent… The German General Secretary of Amnesty International and others are on this, but no reports here, yet. But, in Pakistan, there are headlines as to “Over 100 Children Abused in Custody in Iraq”. http://www.paknews.com/headingNews.php?id=2924&date1=2004-07-05
Morning Release of Senate Report on Intelligence:
This morning the report on pre-war intelligence is released. But, Thursday’s NY Times piece already warned that an agreement in the Republican-controlled congress means that strong examination / criticism of the Administration is out of bounds.
A bipartisan Senate report to be issued Friday that is highly critical of prewar intelligence on Iraq will sidestep the question of how the Bush administration used that information to make the case for war, Congressional officials said Wednesday.
But Democrats are maneuvering to raise the issue in separate statements. Under a deal reached this year between Republicans and Democrats, the Bush administration's role will not be addressed until the Senate Intelligence Committee completes a further stage of its inquiry, but probably not until after the November election. As a result, said the officials, both Democratic and Republican, the committee's initial, unanimous report will focus solely on misjudgments by intelligence agencies, not the White House, in the assessments about Iraq, illicit weapons and Al Qaeda that the administration used as a rationale for the war.
The effect may be to provide an opening for President Bush and his allies to deflect responsibility for what now appear to be exaggerated prewar assessments about the threat posed by Iraq, by portraying them as the fault of the Central Intelligence Agency and its departing chief, George J. Tenet, rather than Mr. Bush and his top aides. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/08/politics/08inte.html?hp=&pagewanted=print&position=
-R
July Surprise I: Federal Marriage Amendment Vote? Troublemaking, i.e. smart gamesmanship, from the Republicans. Kristin Lombardi for the Boston Phoenix:
IF BUSH POLITICAL strategist Karl Rove gets his way in the 2004 presidential race, the contentious issue of gay marriage will play a role in the campaign. It’s not something President Bush will necessarily tout on the national stage. Rather, the dream scenario casts gay marriage as more of a sleeper issue, always there, always lurking in the background. That way, at strategic moments Republicans can exploit the issue to fire up their base of religious conservatives, frighten those all-important undecided voters, and pummel the presumptive Democratic nominee, John Kerry, as Mr. Anti-family —thereby drawing out a pro-Bush shadow vote come November.
Call it the GOP master plan. Ever since the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court ruled last November that same-sex couples have a constitutional right to marry, most observers have expected Republican strategists to use the issue to their advantage. Their strategy became clear last month when the US Senate Republican leadership accelerated its push to amend the US Constitution to ban same-sex nuptials by defining marriage as "the union of a man and a woman." For months, Senate majority leader Bill Frist, the Tennessee Republican, had been signaling to supporters of the Federal Marriage Amendment, or FMA, that he would not schedule a vote on it before November. He even stated that he didn’t think amending the Constitution was something to rush. On June 18, though, Frist quickly changed his tune: he announced that he would schedule Senate debate and a vote on the FMA for the week of July 12 — just two weeks before the Democratic National Convention, in Boston. http://www.bostonphoenix.com/boston/news_features/top/features/documents/03965603.asp
July Surprise II: Get bin Laden! I wrote about this several weeks ago. It’s again making the rounds, and since the time is almost here… From the New Republic:
This spring, the administration significantly increased its pressure on Pakistan to kill or capture Osama bin Laden, his deputy, Ayman Al Zawahiri, or the Taliban's Mullah Mohammed Omar, all of whom are believed to be hiding in the lawless tribal areas of Pakistan. A succession of high-level American officials--from outgoing CIA Director George Tenet to Secretary of State Colin Powell to Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca to State Department counterterrorism chief Cofer Black to a top CIA South Asia official--have visited Pakistan in recent months to urge General Pervez Musharraf's government to do more in the war on terrorism. In April, Zalmay Khalilzad, the American ambassador to Afghanistan, publicly chided the Pakistanis for providing a "sanctuary" for Al Qaeda and Taliban forces crossing the Afghan border. "The problem has not been solved and needs to be solved, the sooner the better," he said...
An official who works under ISI's director, Lieutenant General Ehsan ul-Haq, informed tnr that the Pakistanis "have been told at every level that apprehension or killing of HVTs before [the] election is [an] absolute must." What's more, this source claims that Bush administration officials have told their Pakistani counterparts they have a date in mind for announcing this achievement: "The last ten days of July deadline has been given repeatedly by visitors to Islamabad and during [ul-Haq's] meetings in Washington. http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=20040719&s=aaj071904
Thank goodness they haven’t politicized the “war on terror.”
Kenny Boy:
While the White House is making the pitch that Ken Lay’s prosecution is evidence of their even-handedness, the more telling was Bush’s walking away from the media when asked about Lay at an informal question-answer period.
From the Financial Times
The rash of corporate fraud also did not appear to hurt Republicans, the traditional party of big business, in mid-term Congressional elections two years ago.
Even so, the Lay indictment could still damage the president if it adds to a perception articulated by opponents that his administration is run chiefly by and for large corporate interests, with little sympathy for ordinary voters.
The Enron link has re-emerged as the White House has been fending off allegations about its relationship with another politically-connected Texas energy company, Halliburton. Democrats have accused the administration of rewarding the energy services company formerly run by vice-president Dick Cheney with billions of dollars of wasteful contracts in Iraq.
While neither George W. Bush nor his father ever worked for Enron, the relationship with Mr Lay runs deep. Their alliance was a natural one given their overlap in Houston energy and Washington political circles. http://financialtimes.printthis.clickability.com/pt/cpt?action=cpt&title=Lay+charges+open+a+can+of+worms&expire=&urlID=10944169&fb=Y&url=http%3A%2F%2Fnews.ft.com%2Fs01%2Fservlet%2FContentServer%3Fpagename%3DFT.com%2FStoryFT%2FFullStory%26c%3DStoryFT%26cid%3D1087373572158%26p%3D1012571727291&partnerID=1743
Lay and Bush were very chummy. The record is long- business dealings in the 80’s, Bush Sr. setting up Lay with Houston business folk, Lay the Host of the Republican Convention in ’92, mammoth contributions to Junior, who helps Enron make deals in places like Tom Ridge’s Pennsylvania. Yet, the media continue to de-emphasize or ignore the connection. With the exceptions of the LA Times and the San Francisco Chronicle, most were like CNN.com, which in its large posting ignored Bush entirely. Credit to the Chicago Tribune for mentioning Lay’s comment that he was being prosecuted because of his close ties with Bush.
Edwards (continued)
Inexperience: To counter the disparagement, one should just cite Orrin Hatch’s words to G.W. Bush, from his participation in the presidential primary debates on December 6, 1999. "You've been a great governor; My only problem with you, governor, is that you've only had four and going into your fifth year of governorship. . . . Frankly, I really believe that you need more experience before you become president of the United States. That's why I'm thinking of you as a vice presidential candidate.
Gravitas: The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said Edward’s detailed strategy to combat nuclear proliferation was "the most comprehensive and far-reaching of the three proposals" advanced by the candidates. Basically, Edwards called for a new "Global Compact" to heighten security for existing nuclear facilities and material, to toughen international inspections, limit production of nuclear bomb materials and nuclear fuel, and authorize strong, immediate punishment for any nation that violates and then quits the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Cheney out? Seems tempting for the Bushies. But, the Dems should simply call for Cheney to step down. Then, Bush couldn’t do it, as he would be perceived as “caving” to Democratic wishes.
Polls:
NBC: Kerry-Edwards up 8%
Rasmussen: Kerry up 5 in Florida, up 29% in Massachusetts, up 10% in New Jersey; Bush up 18% in Texas
But it’s only early July.
Florida: Progress (Report)
Florida's top election officials conceded Tuesday that they will take no legal action to force the state's 67 election supervisors to remove nearly 48,000 voters who have been identified by the state as potentially ineligible to vote.
This means the fate of these voters, some of whom appear to have been wrongly placed on the list, will be up to the election supervisor in each county, many of whom have been hesitant so far to remove any voter from the rolls. Some supervisors have said they were unsure if they had the time or staff needed to independently verify the background of voters prior to this fall's elections, but other supervisors have moved ahead anyway.
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/state/9093023.htm?1c
Bush Money Men: The Texas Rangers:
I’m fond of talking about Bush being brought into the investment group that purchased the Rangers, then being assigned to hang with the fans. Prior to selling, several partners GAVE Bush their shares, which led to a tiny sum of about $14 million. This group went on to become major funders of Bush’s political career.
Some specifics: The tale of 3 partners who wound up ambassadors!
*Craig Stapleton: Forked over $60,500, appointed to ambassadorship of Czech Republic, 2001-03; has now returned to fundraising work for Bush.
*Mercer Reynolds III- Gave $373,173; Two years serving in Switzerland, now fundraising chair for Bush
*Jeffrey Marcus: Contributed $275,000. Appointed ambassador to Belgium, but never served, as his impending divorce led to his never showing for the job.
http://www.motherjones.com/news/outfront/2004/07/baseball.html
Bush Records Destroyed I’m not making this up.
Military records that could help establish President Bush's whereabouts during his disputed service in the Texas Air National Guard more than 30 years ago have been inadvertently destroyed, according to the Pentagon.
It said the payroll records of "numerous service members," including former First Lt. Bush, had been ruined in 1996 and 1997 by the Defense Finance and Accounting Service during a project to salvage deteriorating microfilm. No back-up paper copies could be found, it added in notices dated June 25.
The destroyed records cover three months of a period in 1972 and 1973 when Mr. Bush's claims of service in Alabama are in question.
The disclosure appeared to catch some experts, both pro-Bush and con, by surprise. Even the retired lieutenant colonel who studied Mr. Bush's records for the White House, Albert C. Lloyd of Austin, said it came as news to him. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/09/politics/campaign/09records.html?hp
What’s Happening, Iraq:
Iraq Prisons: Children?
A disturbing, as-yet not fully confirmed report in a German TV newsmagazine “Report Mainz”, that the International Red Cross had found over 100 children in coalition detention centers. Since we’ve already learned that 70 to 90% of those in those prisons are innocent… The German General Secretary of Amnesty International and others are on this, but no reports here, yet. But, in Pakistan, there are headlines as to “Over 100 Children Abused in Custody in Iraq”. http://www.paknews.com/headingNews.php?id=2924&date1=2004-07-05
Morning Release of Senate Report on Intelligence:
This morning the report on pre-war intelligence is released. But, Thursday’s NY Times piece already warned that an agreement in the Republican-controlled congress means that strong examination / criticism of the Administration is out of bounds.
A bipartisan Senate report to be issued Friday that is highly critical of prewar intelligence on Iraq will sidestep the question of how the Bush administration used that information to make the case for war, Congressional officials said Wednesday.
But Democrats are maneuvering to raise the issue in separate statements. Under a deal reached this year between Republicans and Democrats, the Bush administration's role will not be addressed until the Senate Intelligence Committee completes a further stage of its inquiry, but probably not until after the November election. As a result, said the officials, both Democratic and Republican, the committee's initial, unanimous report will focus solely on misjudgments by intelligence agencies, not the White House, in the assessments about Iraq, illicit weapons and Al Qaeda that the administration used as a rationale for the war.
The effect may be to provide an opening for President Bush and his allies to deflect responsibility for what now appear to be exaggerated prewar assessments about the threat posed by Iraq, by portraying them as the fault of the Central Intelligence Agency and its departing chief, George J. Tenet, rather than Mr. Bush and his top aides. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/08/politics/08inte.html?hp=&pagewanted=print&position=
-R
