Sunday, October 17, 2004
In meetings I’d ask if there were any facts to support our case. And for that, I was accused of disloyalty! - Christie Whitman, in Ron Suskind’s NY Times article
Election: Limping to the Finish.
I don’t mean the candidates. I think I’m not alone in needing this to end. The pain of seeing Bush lie, butcher reality and conduct a failed presidency, yet not plummet in the polls is terribly disturbing. The Media playing along- no stories about the irregularities, fraud, disenfranchising, unless allusions and only then coupled with Republican “accusations” (‘fair and balanced’)- is maddening. Kerry obviously “winning” the debates on substance and style, yet pulling his punches…ugh.
As to the likely result, I’m of two (equal) minds:
1) People who voted for Gore are not likely to switch to Bush; some of the millions who have registered will vote, Nader’s support- far less than in ’00- will not matter, as polls show that support for him does not lower Kerry’s count. So, baring measurable fraud, Kerry should win. [But, fraud- already documented- could be decisive.]
2) There are enough voters who will vote their “faith” or denial, and coupled with their superior work ethic- doing ‘whatever it takes’ to win- including the disenfranchising of likely Kerry voters- that the Republicans will prevail.
Taxing the Wealthy: It can be done: Common sense in California. Most reassuring.
Despite widespread aversion to new taxes, there is one that most Californians don't seem to mind: the one they don't have to pay.
Supporters of a measure on the November ballot are seizing on the sentiment to push for a vast expansion of services for the mentally ill.
Their plan is to let millionaires pay the bill. And judging by polls, their campaign is proving effective.
The proposal targets a small group of taxpayers for one of the largest state tax hikes in recent history. It would place a 1 percent surcharge on all taxable income exceeding $1 million. The tax would cost the state's 25,000 or so millionaires $10,000 for every million they earn after their first million.
The cost to non-millionaires would be nothing. http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2004/10/17/millionaire_tax_gains_steam_in_calif?mode=PF
Al-Qaeda Infiltration in the UK
The Territorial Army has been infiltrated by Al-Qaeda suspects, giving the Islamic terrorist group potential access to military bases, explosives and fuel dumps.
Five Al-Qaeda suspects are believed to have trained as part-time soldiers with the TA. At least one is now in custody.
The Ministry of Defence (MoD) has confirmed that other terror suspects have attempted to join the TA, but says they were rejected after undergoing security checks.
The connection with Britain’s Al-Qaeda network was uncovered in a series of wide-ranging investigations by MI5 and Scotland Yard’s Special Branch.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,1-1313759,00.html
Blair the Puppy (cont.)
Tony Blair faces a growing political row over Iraq after it emerged that hundreds of British troops may soon be sent to the Baghdad region to fight under American command.
Senior MPs and military sources warned of the danger of British soldiers being associated with heavy-handed US military tactics in central Iraq and of being drawn deeper into the conflict.
Blair himself risks accusations that he is acting to shore up his ally George W Bush in advance of the US presidential elections on November 2.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-1313945,00.html
Medievalism vs the Enlightenment: Bush Profile: Ron Suskind’s NY Times magazine profile confirms that truth and “reality” doesn’t fit these guys. Yet, Bush’s “certainty” doesn’t explain the minds of Wolfowitz, Cheney, and the rest of the neocons who sold Bush on this set of policies.
So, will the Kerry camp make use of excerpts?
In the summer of 2002, after I had written an article in Esquire that the White House didn't like about Bush's former communications director, Karen Hughes, I had a meeting with a senior adviser to Bush. He expressed the White House's displeasure, and then he told me something that at the time I didn't fully comprehend -- but which I now believe gets to the very heart of the Bush presidency. The aide said that guys like me were ''in what we call the reality-based community,'' which he defined as people who ''believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.''
I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment principles and empiricism. He cut me off. ''That's not the way the world really works anymore,'' he continued. ''We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality -- judiciously, as you will -- we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.'' http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/17/magazine/17BUSH.html?oref=login
Democracy in Trouble: The Putinization of American Life: American media are better at tracking the authoritarian trend in Russia, but aren’t inclined to comment as to what’s happening here.
Matthew Yglesias:
Suskind's article along with other pieces of evidence of what one might call the creeping Putinization of American life (the Sinclair incident, the threatening letter to Rock The Vote, the specter of the top official in the House of Representatives making totally baseless charges of criminal conduct against a major financier of the political opposition [shades of Mikhail Khodorovsky], the increasing evidence that the 'terror alert' system is nothing more than a political prop, the 'torture memo' asserting that the president is above the law, the imposition of rigid discipline on the congress, the abuse of the conference committee procedure, the ability of the administration to lie to congress without penalty, the exclusion of non-supporters from Bush's public appearances, etc.) are beginning to make me think this assessment may have been misguided. Terrorist forces operating in and around Chechnya have done some horrible things -- I was in Moscow for the big apartment bombings -- but ultimately the most harmful thing they have done was to enable Putin to tighten his grip on power. http://yglesias.typepad.com/matthew/2004/10/threats.html
Fraud (cont.) The AP report notes that Jeb Bush is personally aware of and enabling of the disenfranchising of ex-felons. So, we can’t blame the Secretary of State, Glenda Hood, just as we couldn’t blame her predecessor, Katherine Harris.
Florida Gov. Jeb Bush ignored advice to throw out a flawed felon voter list before it went out to county election offices despite warnings from state officials, according to a published report Saturday.
Bush's spokeswoman, Jill Bratina, denied allegations that the governor ignored warnings about the list.
"It's also irrelevant because the list isn't being used," Bratina said Saturday.
A reminder as to why this election may drag on:
Election officials have said that anyone who feels they have been inadvertently removed from the voter rolls on Nov. 2 will be allowed to use a provisional ballot that will be examined later to determine eligibility. http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20041017/ap_on_el_pr/florida_felons_voting&cid=694&ncid=716
Not just for Sports Fans: Jim Bunning in Trouble
Jim Bunning, Senator of Kentucky, a star baseball pitcher in the 1960s, is struggling in his re-election campaign. The (very) conservative Republican was a clear favorite against Dan Mongiardo until signs of mental distress, if not illness, appeared. The Republicans are denying trouble, trying to get through the election so that the Republican governor can appoint a Republican replacement. Putting aside the compassion, it gives the Democrats a tad more than an infinitesimal chance to take the Senate.
Marygate: The Media bought in. After the last debate, there were no headlines about Bush’s lie about not caring about bin Laden, no Washington Post poll of what people thought of the lie, or about the dirty tricks / fraud being perpetrated by the Republicans. Instead we got headlines and a Washington Post poll as to what people thought of Kerry’s comment about Mary Cheney.
An overwhelming majority of voters believe it was wrong for Democratic nominee John F. Kerry to have mentioned in Wednesday's presidential debate that Vice President Cheney's daughter was a lesbian, according to the latest Washington Post tracking survey.
Nearly two in three likely voters -- 64 percent -- said Kerry's comment was "inappropriate," including more than four in 10 of his own supporters and half of all swing voters. A third -- 33 percent -- thought the remark was appropriate. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A36114-2004Oct15.html
Jon Stewart: "The press has bravely and nobly eroded the public trust. What I'm advocating is the media come back and work for us again. ... The bias of the media is not liberal. It's lazy and sensationalist."
As a devotee, I’ve watched his frustration build about our failing Major Media. He went on Crossfire to “not be your monkey”, but to let ‘em have it.
"I think you're a lot more fun on your show," said Tucker Carlson to "Crossfire" guest Jon Stewart this afternoon. "And I think you're as much of a dick on your show as on any other," Stewart shot back. It wasn't the faux avuncularity we've come to expect from Stewart on "The Daily Show" but there, of course, he's playing a role. Here he was himself -- and he wasn't buying any of it.
From the moment Stewart sat down he made no secret of how repugnant he found the show. In fact, he said to Carlson and co-host Paul Begala that he had been so hard on the show he felt it was his duty to come on and say to their faces what he has said to friends and in interviews. What he said was that their show was "hurting America," and he was being only slightly hyperbolic. Stewart told them that when America needed journalists to be journalists they had instead chosen to present theater.
Carlson, trying to affect an air of dry amusement that a comedian would presume to lecture him, important pundit that he is, but looking as if his bow-tie were about to start spinning, could barely contain his outrage. In an absolutely mind-boggling moment, Carlson tried to counter Stewart's criticism by pointing out that during John Kerry's recent appearance on "The Daily Show," Stewart asked the candidate softball questions. "If you want to measure yourself against a comedy show," Stewart said, "be my guest."
Paul Begala tried to put a more conciliatory face on things by pointing out that theirs was a "debate" show. Stewart was having none of it. "I would love to see a real debate show," he said. And went on to tell them that instead of holding politicians' feet to the fire by asking tough question, "you're part of their strategy. You're partisan -- what's the word? -- uh, hacks."
http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/
The actual video is priceless: http://homepage.mac.com/duffyb/nobush/iMovieTheater231.html
Decision Day: November 2? Lots of speculation that 2000 wasn’t the exception, but rather has established the norm- of elections contested in the days or weeks afterward. One such positing:
President Bush's top campaign lawyer said yesterday that the winner of next month's presidential vote may not be known for "days or weeks" after Election Day if the contest is close.
Experts predict that a large number of absentee ballots will be cast, which could take time to count. For the first time nationwide, voters whose names do not appear on the rolls will be allowed to cast "provisional ballots," which will be counted only after a post-Election Day review determines their eligibility.
In addition, some battleground states will count overseas military ballots received after Election Day as long as they are postmarked before Nov. 3. In Florida, for instance, military ballots received through Nov. 12 will be counted. http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A36805-2004Oct15?language=printer
Polls:
Beginning on Friday, most national polls released had Bush ahead. Disturbing
*Reuters/Zogby poll released on Friday. "An improvement in Bush's showing among undecideds and a strong response from his base Republican supporters helped fuel the president's rise."
*Rasmussen daily tracking poll: Bush leading by 2 – 3 points
*The TIPP Tracking Pollshows Bush leading 47% to 44%.
*The ABC News/Washington Post tracking But the survey also suggests that Kerry continues to claim a large lead in key battleground states. In these 13 states, Kerry held a 53 percent to 43 percent advantage among likely voters.
State Polls:
Florida: Kerry 48, Bush 44 (Insider Advantage)
Florida: Kerry 47, Bush 47 (Washington Post)
Florida: Bush 49, Kerry 46 (Rasmussen)
New Jersey: Kerry 44, Bush 42 (Fairleigh Dickinson)
-R
Election: Limping to the Finish.
I don’t mean the candidates. I think I’m not alone in needing this to end. The pain of seeing Bush lie, butcher reality and conduct a failed presidency, yet not plummet in the polls is terribly disturbing. The Media playing along- no stories about the irregularities, fraud, disenfranchising, unless allusions and only then coupled with Republican “accusations” (‘fair and balanced’)- is maddening. Kerry obviously “winning” the debates on substance and style, yet pulling his punches…ugh.
As to the likely result, I’m of two (equal) minds:
1) People who voted for Gore are not likely to switch to Bush; some of the millions who have registered will vote, Nader’s support- far less than in ’00- will not matter, as polls show that support for him does not lower Kerry’s count. So, baring measurable fraud, Kerry should win. [But, fraud- already documented- could be decisive.]
2) There are enough voters who will vote their “faith” or denial, and coupled with their superior work ethic- doing ‘whatever it takes’ to win- including the disenfranchising of likely Kerry voters- that the Republicans will prevail.
Taxing the Wealthy: It can be done: Common sense in California. Most reassuring.
Despite widespread aversion to new taxes, there is one that most Californians don't seem to mind: the one they don't have to pay.
Supporters of a measure on the November ballot are seizing on the sentiment to push for a vast expansion of services for the mentally ill.
Their plan is to let millionaires pay the bill. And judging by polls, their campaign is proving effective.
The proposal targets a small group of taxpayers for one of the largest state tax hikes in recent history. It would place a 1 percent surcharge on all taxable income exceeding $1 million. The tax would cost the state's 25,000 or so millionaires $10,000 for every million they earn after their first million.
The cost to non-millionaires would be nothing. http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2004/10/17/millionaire_tax_gains_steam_in_calif?mode=PF
Al-Qaeda Infiltration in the UK
The Territorial Army has been infiltrated by Al-Qaeda suspects, giving the Islamic terrorist group potential access to military bases, explosives and fuel dumps.
Five Al-Qaeda suspects are believed to have trained as part-time soldiers with the TA. At least one is now in custody.
The Ministry of Defence (MoD) has confirmed that other terror suspects have attempted to join the TA, but says they were rejected after undergoing security checks.
The connection with Britain’s Al-Qaeda network was uncovered in a series of wide-ranging investigations by MI5 and Scotland Yard’s Special Branch.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,1-1313759,00.html
Blair the Puppy (cont.)
Tony Blair faces a growing political row over Iraq after it emerged that hundreds of British troops may soon be sent to the Baghdad region to fight under American command.
Senior MPs and military sources warned of the danger of British soldiers being associated with heavy-handed US military tactics in central Iraq and of being drawn deeper into the conflict.
Blair himself risks accusations that he is acting to shore up his ally George W Bush in advance of the US presidential elections on November 2.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-1313945,00.html
Medievalism vs the Enlightenment: Bush Profile: Ron Suskind’s NY Times magazine profile confirms that truth and “reality” doesn’t fit these guys. Yet, Bush’s “certainty” doesn’t explain the minds of Wolfowitz, Cheney, and the rest of the neocons who sold Bush on this set of policies.
So, will the Kerry camp make use of excerpts?
In the summer of 2002, after I had written an article in Esquire that the White House didn't like about Bush's former communications director, Karen Hughes, I had a meeting with a senior adviser to Bush. He expressed the White House's displeasure, and then he told me something that at the time I didn't fully comprehend -- but which I now believe gets to the very heart of the Bush presidency. The aide said that guys like me were ''in what we call the reality-based community,'' which he defined as people who ''believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.''
I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment principles and empiricism. He cut me off. ''That's not the way the world really works anymore,'' he continued. ''We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality -- judiciously, as you will -- we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.'' http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/17/magazine/17BUSH.html?oref=login
Democracy in Trouble: The Putinization of American Life: American media are better at tracking the authoritarian trend in Russia, but aren’t inclined to comment as to what’s happening here.
Matthew Yglesias:
Suskind's article along with other pieces of evidence of what one might call the creeping Putinization of American life (the Sinclair incident, the threatening letter to Rock The Vote, the specter of the top official in the House of Representatives making totally baseless charges of criminal conduct against a major financier of the political opposition [shades of Mikhail Khodorovsky], the increasing evidence that the 'terror alert' system is nothing more than a political prop, the 'torture memo' asserting that the president is above the law, the imposition of rigid discipline on the congress, the abuse of the conference committee procedure, the ability of the administration to lie to congress without penalty, the exclusion of non-supporters from Bush's public appearances, etc.) are beginning to make me think this assessment may have been misguided. Terrorist forces operating in and around Chechnya have done some horrible things -- I was in Moscow for the big apartment bombings -- but ultimately the most harmful thing they have done was to enable Putin to tighten his grip on power. http://yglesias.typepad.com/matthew/2004/10/threats.html
Fraud (cont.) The AP report notes that Jeb Bush is personally aware of and enabling of the disenfranchising of ex-felons. So, we can’t blame the Secretary of State, Glenda Hood, just as we couldn’t blame her predecessor, Katherine Harris.
Florida Gov. Jeb Bush ignored advice to throw out a flawed felon voter list before it went out to county election offices despite warnings from state officials, according to a published report Saturday.
Bush's spokeswoman, Jill Bratina, denied allegations that the governor ignored warnings about the list.
"It's also irrelevant because the list isn't being used," Bratina said Saturday.
A reminder as to why this election may drag on:
Election officials have said that anyone who feels they have been inadvertently removed from the voter rolls on Nov. 2 will be allowed to use a provisional ballot that will be examined later to determine eligibility. http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20041017/ap_on_el_pr/florida_felons_voting&cid=694&ncid=716
Not just for Sports Fans: Jim Bunning in Trouble
Jim Bunning, Senator of Kentucky, a star baseball pitcher in the 1960s, is struggling in his re-election campaign. The (very) conservative Republican was a clear favorite against Dan Mongiardo until signs of mental distress, if not illness, appeared. The Republicans are denying trouble, trying to get through the election so that the Republican governor can appoint a Republican replacement. Putting aside the compassion, it gives the Democrats a tad more than an infinitesimal chance to take the Senate.
Marygate: The Media bought in. After the last debate, there were no headlines about Bush’s lie about not caring about bin Laden, no Washington Post poll of what people thought of the lie, or about the dirty tricks / fraud being perpetrated by the Republicans. Instead we got headlines and a Washington Post poll as to what people thought of Kerry’s comment about Mary Cheney.
An overwhelming majority of voters believe it was wrong for Democratic nominee John F. Kerry to have mentioned in Wednesday's presidential debate that Vice President Cheney's daughter was a lesbian, according to the latest Washington Post tracking survey.
Nearly two in three likely voters -- 64 percent -- said Kerry's comment was "inappropriate," including more than four in 10 of his own supporters and half of all swing voters. A third -- 33 percent -- thought the remark was appropriate. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A36114-2004Oct15.html
Jon Stewart: "The press has bravely and nobly eroded the public trust. What I'm advocating is the media come back and work for us again. ... The bias of the media is not liberal. It's lazy and sensationalist."
As a devotee, I’ve watched his frustration build about our failing Major Media. He went on Crossfire to “not be your monkey”, but to let ‘em have it.
"I think you're a lot more fun on your show," said Tucker Carlson to "Crossfire" guest Jon Stewart this afternoon. "And I think you're as much of a dick on your show as on any other," Stewart shot back. It wasn't the faux avuncularity we've come to expect from Stewart on "The Daily Show" but there, of course, he's playing a role. Here he was himself -- and he wasn't buying any of it.
From the moment Stewart sat down he made no secret of how repugnant he found the show. In fact, he said to Carlson and co-host Paul Begala that he had been so hard on the show he felt it was his duty to come on and say to their faces what he has said to friends and in interviews. What he said was that their show was "hurting America," and he was being only slightly hyperbolic. Stewart told them that when America needed journalists to be journalists they had instead chosen to present theater.
Carlson, trying to affect an air of dry amusement that a comedian would presume to lecture him, important pundit that he is, but looking as if his bow-tie were about to start spinning, could barely contain his outrage. In an absolutely mind-boggling moment, Carlson tried to counter Stewart's criticism by pointing out that during John Kerry's recent appearance on "The Daily Show," Stewart asked the candidate softball questions. "If you want to measure yourself against a comedy show," Stewart said, "be my guest."
Paul Begala tried to put a more conciliatory face on things by pointing out that theirs was a "debate" show. Stewart was having none of it. "I would love to see a real debate show," he said. And went on to tell them that instead of holding politicians' feet to the fire by asking tough question, "you're part of their strategy. You're partisan -- what's the word? -- uh, hacks."
http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/
The actual video is priceless: http://homepage.mac.com/duffyb/nobush/iMovieTheater231.html
Decision Day: November 2? Lots of speculation that 2000 wasn’t the exception, but rather has established the norm- of elections contested in the days or weeks afterward. One such positing:
President Bush's top campaign lawyer said yesterday that the winner of next month's presidential vote may not be known for "days or weeks" after Election Day if the contest is close.
Experts predict that a large number of absentee ballots will be cast, which could take time to count. For the first time nationwide, voters whose names do not appear on the rolls will be allowed to cast "provisional ballots," which will be counted only after a post-Election Day review determines their eligibility.
In addition, some battleground states will count overseas military ballots received after Election Day as long as they are postmarked before Nov. 3. In Florida, for instance, military ballots received through Nov. 12 will be counted. http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A36805-2004Oct15?language=printer
Polls:
Beginning on Friday, most national polls released had Bush ahead. Disturbing
*Reuters/Zogby poll released on Friday. "An improvement in Bush's showing among undecideds and a strong response from his base Republican supporters helped fuel the president's rise."
*Rasmussen daily tracking poll: Bush leading by 2 – 3 points
*The TIPP Tracking Pollshows Bush leading 47% to 44%.
*The ABC News/Washington Post tracking But the survey also suggests that Kerry continues to claim a large lead in key battleground states. In these 13 states, Kerry held a 53 percent to 43 percent advantage among likely voters.
State Polls:
Florida: Kerry 48, Bush 44 (Insider Advantage)
Florida: Kerry 47, Bush 47 (Washington Post)
Florida: Bush 49, Kerry 46 (Rasmussen)
New Jersey: Kerry 44, Bush 42 (Fairleigh Dickinson)
-R
