Tuesday, November 23, 2004
Budget Chicanery As during the campaign, they’ll do ‘whatever it takes’…
Republican budget writers say they may have found a way to cut the federal deficit even if they borrow hundreds of billions more to overhaul the Social Security system: Don't count all that new borrowing.
As they lay the groundwork for what will probably be a controversial fight over Social Security, Republican lawmakers and the Bush administration are examining a number of accounting strategies that would allow the expensive transition to a partially privatized Social Security system without -- at least on paper -- expanding the country's record annual budget deficits. The strategies include, for example, moving the costs of Social Security reform "off-budget" so they are not counted against the government's yearly shortfall. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A5525-2004Nov22.html
Nervousness About the Economy
Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment banking giant Morgan Stanley, has a public reputation for being bearish.
But you should hear what he's saying in private.
Roach met select groups of fund managers downtown last week, including a group at Fidelity.
His prediction: America has no better than a 10 percent chance of avoiding economic ``armageddon.''
Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the Herald has obtained a copy of Roach's presentation. A stunned source who was at one meeting said, ``it struck me how extreme he was - much more, it seemed to me, than in public.''
Roach sees a 30 percent chance of a slump soon and a 60 percent chance that ``we'll muddle through for a while and delay the eventual armageddon.''
The chance we'll get through OK: one in 10. Maybe.
http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=55356
Comment from Krugman. He’s on vacation, but still talking
"If you go back and you look at the sources of the blow-up of Argentine debt during the 1990s, one little-appreciated thing is that social security privatization was a important source of that expansion of debt," said Krugman.
In 2001, Argentina finally defaulted on an estimated $100 billion in debt, the largest such event in modern economic history.
BANANA REPUBLIC?
"So if you ask the question do we look like Argentina, the answer is a whole lot more than anyone is quite willing to admit at this point. We've become a banana republic."
Crisis might take many forms, he said, but one key concern is the prospect that Asian central banks may lose their appetite for U.S. government debt, which has so far allowed the United States to finance its twin deficits.
A deeper plunge in the already battered U.S. dollar is another possible route to crisis, the professor said. http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=615&u=/nm/20041122/pl_nm/economy_crisis_krugman_dc_1&printer=1
We Knew it Wasn’t About the Issues. Folks still aren’t comfortable with the ‘Bush Agenda.’
After a brutally fought election campaign, Americans are optimistic about the next four years under President Bush, but they have reservations about central elements of the second-term agenda that Mr. Bush presented in defeating Senator John Kerry, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.
At a time when the White House has portrayed Mr. Bush's 3.5-million-vote victory as a mandate, the poll found that Americans are at best ambivalent about Mr. Bush's plans to reshape Social Security, rewrite the tax code, cut taxes and appoint conservative judges to the bench. There is continuing disapproval of Mr. Bush's handling of the war in Iraq, with a plurality now saying it was a mistake to invade Baghdad the first place. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/22/politics/22cnd-poll.html?oref=login&hp&ex=1101186000&en=34ccb5e9d2fe1ba2&ei=5094&partner=homepage
Our priorities: CBS survey:
"What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?"
War in Iraq 25%
Economy/Jobs 18%
Terrorism (general) 11%
Health care 6%
Miscellaneous moral values 4%
The President 3%
Social Security/Medicare 2%
Education 2%
Poverty/Homelessness 2%Foreign policy 2%Defense/Military 2%Other 17%
Unsure 6%
So, moral values…4%. Hmmmmmmm.
Olbermann, on the job. Appreciation by Maureen Farrell: I’ve appreciated the guy for years- SportsCenter [ESPN], a few stops in between, and now Countdown.
It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. While some in the mainstream media were finally paying attention to an important story as it was unfolding (rather than waiting three years, ala the New York Times), others were taking the usual safe and tired tact.
It all started on Monday, Nov. 7, when, inspired by a Cincinnati Enquirer story on how Warren County Ohio officials had "locked down" the administration building on election night and restricted open access to the vote count there, Keith Olbermann began reporting on voting irregularities across the country. "We have heard the message on the Voting Angst and will continue to cover it with all prudent speed," Olbermann later wrote on his blog, and sure enough, Countdown with Keith Olbermann doled out nightly nuggets -- not only concerning Votergate, but regarding the media itself. This exchange between Olbermann and Craig Crawford was especially satisfying:
CRAWFORD: "We're often wimps in the media. And we wait for other people to make charges, one political party or another, and then we investigate it. But this is the time to do this. There's still time before the [2004 election] results are certified. It doesn't mean it will change the outcome. But it is good and I congratulate you for looking at some of these [voting] irregularities.
OLBERMANN: "I congratulate you for joining me on the crap list for saying that there are wimps in the media. Amen, brother.
(LAUGHTER)
OLBERMANN: We know it and now everybody else knows it. http://www.buzzflash.com/farrell/04/11/far04040.html
Bush: An Appreciation from William Kristol. Makes me cherish the day Kristol made a fool of himself on The Daily Show.
Meanwhile, the offensive in Falluja has gone better than expected, and we are following up in Mosul, Ramadi, and elsewhere as necessary. The president is clearly resolved to mobilize all available military, political, and diplomatic resources to bring off elections in Iraq, and successfully to prosecute the larger war on terror and hasten the transformation of the Middle East.
We know that Bush has been reading Natan Sharansky's fine new book, The Case for Democracy. He's acting as though Alexander Hamilton is on his reading list, too. The "test of a good government," Hamilton argued in The Federalist, "is its aptitude and tendency to produce a good administration." http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/004/942wqnjh.asp
DeLay Avoiding Indictment(?) CBS Report.
House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Texas, appears to have dodged a bullet. The powerful GOP chieftain is unlikely to be indicted by a state grand jury probing alleged campaign finance violations in Texas, according to an official involved in the investigation. "No, no, I really don’t think DeLay will be indicted," the official told CBSNews.com. "And to be quite honest, [DeLay’s] lawyers know that." http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/11/22/politics/main656960.shtml
So, DeLay gets off, the Plame investigation drags on, tons of arms lost in Iraq is forgotten, the 2nd half of the 9/11 Commission which purportedly blasts Administration folk has been “held.” No news fit to print…
U.S. Casualties- off the record. Some of those not “counted.”
How many injured and ill soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines - like Chris Schneider - are left off the Pentagon’s casualty count? Would you believe 15,000? 60 Minutes asked the Department of Defense to grant us an interview. They declined. Instead, they sent a letter, which contains a figure not included in published casualty reports: "More than 15,000 troops with so-called 'non-battle' injuries and diseases have been evacuated from Iraq." Many of those evacuated are brought to Landstuhl in Germany. Most cases are not life-threatening. In fact, some are not serious at all. But only 20 percent return to their units in Iraq. Among the 80 percent who don’t return are GIs who suffered crushing bone fractures; scores of spinal injuries; heart problems by the hundreds; and a slew of psychiatric cases. None of these are included in the casualty count, leaving the true human cost of the war something of a mystery. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/11/19/60minutes/main656756.shtml
-R
Republican budget writers say they may have found a way to cut the federal deficit even if they borrow hundreds of billions more to overhaul the Social Security system: Don't count all that new borrowing.
As they lay the groundwork for what will probably be a controversial fight over Social Security, Republican lawmakers and the Bush administration are examining a number of accounting strategies that would allow the expensive transition to a partially privatized Social Security system without -- at least on paper -- expanding the country's record annual budget deficits. The strategies include, for example, moving the costs of Social Security reform "off-budget" so they are not counted against the government's yearly shortfall. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A5525-2004Nov22.html
Nervousness About the Economy
Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment banking giant Morgan Stanley, has a public reputation for being bearish.
But you should hear what he's saying in private.
Roach met select groups of fund managers downtown last week, including a group at Fidelity.
His prediction: America has no better than a 10 percent chance of avoiding economic ``armageddon.''
Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the Herald has obtained a copy of Roach's presentation. A stunned source who was at one meeting said, ``it struck me how extreme he was - much more, it seemed to me, than in public.''
Roach sees a 30 percent chance of a slump soon and a 60 percent chance that ``we'll muddle through for a while and delay the eventual armageddon.''
The chance we'll get through OK: one in 10. Maybe.
http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=55356
Comment from Krugman. He’s on vacation, but still talking
"If you go back and you look at the sources of the blow-up of Argentine debt during the 1990s, one little-appreciated thing is that social security privatization was a important source of that expansion of debt," said Krugman.
In 2001, Argentina finally defaulted on an estimated $100 billion in debt, the largest such event in modern economic history.
BANANA REPUBLIC?
"So if you ask the question do we look like Argentina, the answer is a whole lot more than anyone is quite willing to admit at this point. We've become a banana republic."
Crisis might take many forms, he said, but one key concern is the prospect that Asian central banks may lose their appetite for U.S. government debt, which has so far allowed the United States to finance its twin deficits.
A deeper plunge in the already battered U.S. dollar is another possible route to crisis, the professor said. http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=615&u=/nm/20041122/pl_nm/economy_crisis_krugman_dc_1&printer=1
We Knew it Wasn’t About the Issues. Folks still aren’t comfortable with the ‘Bush Agenda.’
After a brutally fought election campaign, Americans are optimistic about the next four years under President Bush, but they have reservations about central elements of the second-term agenda that Mr. Bush presented in defeating Senator John Kerry, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.
At a time when the White House has portrayed Mr. Bush's 3.5-million-vote victory as a mandate, the poll found that Americans are at best ambivalent about Mr. Bush's plans to reshape Social Security, rewrite the tax code, cut taxes and appoint conservative judges to the bench. There is continuing disapproval of Mr. Bush's handling of the war in Iraq, with a plurality now saying it was a mistake to invade Baghdad the first place. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/22/politics/22cnd-poll.html?oref=login&hp&ex=1101186000&en=34ccb5e9d2fe1ba2&ei=5094&partner=homepage
Our priorities: CBS survey:
"What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?"
War in Iraq 25%
Economy/Jobs 18%
Terrorism (general) 11%
Health care 6%
Miscellaneous moral values 4%
The President 3%
Social Security/Medicare 2%
Education 2%
Poverty/Homelessness 2%Foreign policy 2%Defense/Military 2%Other 17%
Unsure 6%
So, moral values…4%. Hmmmmmmm.
Olbermann, on the job. Appreciation by Maureen Farrell: I’ve appreciated the guy for years- SportsCenter [ESPN], a few stops in between, and now Countdown.
It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. While some in the mainstream media were finally paying attention to an important story as it was unfolding (rather than waiting three years, ala the New York Times), others were taking the usual safe and tired tact.
It all started on Monday, Nov. 7, when, inspired by a Cincinnati Enquirer story on how Warren County Ohio officials had "locked down" the administration building on election night and restricted open access to the vote count there, Keith Olbermann began reporting on voting irregularities across the country. "We have heard the message on the Voting Angst and will continue to cover it with all prudent speed," Olbermann later wrote on his blog, and sure enough, Countdown with Keith Olbermann doled out nightly nuggets -- not only concerning Votergate, but regarding the media itself. This exchange between Olbermann and Craig Crawford was especially satisfying:
CRAWFORD: "We're often wimps in the media. And we wait for other people to make charges, one political party or another, and then we investigate it. But this is the time to do this. There's still time before the [2004 election] results are certified. It doesn't mean it will change the outcome. But it is good and I congratulate you for looking at some of these [voting] irregularities.
OLBERMANN: "I congratulate you for joining me on the crap list for saying that there are wimps in the media. Amen, brother.
(LAUGHTER)
OLBERMANN: We know it and now everybody else knows it. http://www.buzzflash.com/farrell/04/11/far04040.html
Bush: An Appreciation from William Kristol. Makes me cherish the day Kristol made a fool of himself on The Daily Show.
Meanwhile, the offensive in Falluja has gone better than expected, and we are following up in Mosul, Ramadi, and elsewhere as necessary. The president is clearly resolved to mobilize all available military, political, and diplomatic resources to bring off elections in Iraq, and successfully to prosecute the larger war on terror and hasten the transformation of the Middle East.
We know that Bush has been reading Natan Sharansky's fine new book, The Case for Democracy. He's acting as though Alexander Hamilton is on his reading list, too. The "test of a good government," Hamilton argued in The Federalist, "is its aptitude and tendency to produce a good administration." http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/004/942wqnjh.asp
DeLay Avoiding Indictment(?) CBS Report.
House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Texas, appears to have dodged a bullet. The powerful GOP chieftain is unlikely to be indicted by a state grand jury probing alleged campaign finance violations in Texas, according to an official involved in the investigation. "No, no, I really don’t think DeLay will be indicted," the official told CBSNews.com. "And to be quite honest, [DeLay’s] lawyers know that." http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/11/22/politics/main656960.shtml
So, DeLay gets off, the Plame investigation drags on, tons of arms lost in Iraq is forgotten, the 2nd half of the 9/11 Commission which purportedly blasts Administration folk has been “held.” No news fit to print…
U.S. Casualties- off the record. Some of those not “counted.”
How many injured and ill soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines - like Chris Schneider - are left off the Pentagon’s casualty count? Would you believe 15,000? 60 Minutes asked the Department of Defense to grant us an interview. They declined. Instead, they sent a letter, which contains a figure not included in published casualty reports: "More than 15,000 troops with so-called 'non-battle' injuries and diseases have been evacuated from Iraq." Many of those evacuated are brought to Landstuhl in Germany. Most cases are not life-threatening. In fact, some are not serious at all. But only 20 percent return to their units in Iraq. Among the 80 percent who don’t return are GIs who suffered crushing bone fractures; scores of spinal injuries; heart problems by the hundreds; and a slew of psychiatric cases. None of these are included in the casualty count, leaving the true human cost of the war something of a mystery. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/11/19/60minutes/main656756.shtml
-R
