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Friday, August 20, 2004

 
Sudan: Familiar Realities
The players change, but the dynamics sound terribly familiar. The UN is unable to muster more than an inadequate number of “peacekeepers”. But, China, which has resisted Security Council actions to pressure the Sudanese government, has 4000 troops there, protecting their pipelines.

Energy Crisis: Oil AND Natural Gas The “crisis” continues to brew:
Is natural gas becoming the new oil?
At a time when the nation is chafing at its persistent dependence on foreign oil, it is becoming clear that the United States may be headed for the same situation with natural gas.
Demand is growing far faster than supply from domestic sources or from friendly neighbors like Canada. Soon, probably within the next decade, the United States will become a significant importer of gas from regions like North Africa, the Middle East, the former Soviet Union and the Caribbean, transported in liquefied form by giant tanker ships.
Faced with that prospect, policy makers and industry executives are pondering whether that means natural gas will become another vulnerable front in American diplomacy and energy security, posing the same quandaries and threats that crude oil does now.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/20/business/20gas.html

What’s Happening, Iraq???: U.S. Medical staff and Abuse
The medical community is calling for an investigation into the role of US medical staff in the prisoner abuse that took place in Iraq's Abu Ghraib prison, according to two new journal articles and appeals from physicians' groups...[t]he US military medical system "failed to protect detainees' human rights, sometimes collaborated with interrogators or abusive guards, and failed to properly report injuries or deaths caused by beatings," writes Steven Miles, a physician at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis, US, in The Lancet. http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99996304

The Pentagon denies, but promises a review.

Kerry Swift Boat Issue
The Times’ lengthy article adds little to what’s already known. But, what matters, of course, is not the truth, but perception, whether or not the repetitive lie will loosen support for Kerry or backfire on Bush.

A series of interviews and a review of documents show a web of connections to the Bush family, high-profile Texas political figures and President Bush's chief political aide, Karl Rove. Records show that the group received the bulk of its initial financing from two men with ties to the president and his family - one a longtime political associate of Mr. Rove's, the other a trustee of the foundation for Mr. Bush's father's presidential library. A Texas publicist who once helped prepare Mr. Bush's father for his debate when he was running for vice president provided them with strategic advice. And the group's television commercial was produced by the same team that made the devastating ad mocking Michael S. Dukakis in an oversized tank helmet when he and Mr. Bush's father faced off in the 1988 presidential election.
The strategy the veterans devised would ultimately paint John Kerry the war hero as John Kerry the "baby killer" and the fabricator of the events that resulted in his war medals. But on close examination, the accounts of Swift Boat Veterans for Truth' prove to be riddled with inconsistencies. In many cases, material offered as proof by these veterans is undercut by official Navy records and the men's own statements.
Several of those now declaring Mr. Kerry "unfit" had lavished praise on him, some as recently as last year.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/20/politics/campaign/20swift.html

Dumbed-Down America…Still
A survey provides the usual sorry results, that more than half of Americans -- 54 percent – STILL believe Iraq had WMDs. The same poll also finds that roughly half believe Iraq was either closely linked to al-Qaida before the war -- or was directly involved in 9/11.
Oy vey.
http://news.bostonherald.com/international/view.bg?articleid=40727

But Saddam would have had WMD… by 2008
Since he had none, all the CIA and their boss, the Bush Administration, can do is scare us with ‘What If?- if we had not invaded. Saddam supposedly would have developed an arsenal. Not likely. With sanctions, inspectors, planes- spy planes, bombers monitoring or blasting his every move, he would have been lucky to have just survived.

From the LA Times:
Having failed to find banned weapons in Iraq, the CIA is preparing a final report on its search that will speculate on what the deposed regime's capabilities might have looked like years from now if left unchecked, according to congressional and intelligence officials.The CIA plans for the report, due next month, to project as far as 2008 what Iraq might have achieved in its illegal weapons programs if the United States had not invaded the country last year, the officials said.The new direction of the inquiry is seen by some officials as an attempt to obscure the fact that no banned weapons — or even evidence of active programs — have been found, and instead emphasize theories that Iraq may have been planning to revive its programs. The change in focus has angered some intelligence officials and at least one key Democrat in Congress and has brought charges of political motivation. http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/iraq/la-na-wmd20aug20,1,1076498,print.story?coll=la-home-headlines

Pro-Bush Movie They have their own! An apparently pathetic effort that claims Kerry never went to law school, etc. From Joe Conason:

The next salvo in the cinematic campaign war of 2004 is "The Big Picture," a documentary film attacking John Kerry sponsored by David Bossie's Citizens United, the right-wing group that unsuccessfully sued to stop national advertising of Michael Moore's "Fahrenheit 9/11." But Bossie's latest project could create legal problems for him and his organization -- in part because Lionel Chetwynd, the award-winning director, is working not only on the documentary but also on two shorter films to be screened at the Republican National Convention.
The director's simultaneous involvement in both the convention films and the Bossie documentary raises eyebrows among campaign finance experts, because Citizens United is a tax-exempt foundation legally restricted from "coordinating" its "independent" political broadcasts or messages with the Bush-Cheney campaign or the Republican National Committee. If Chetwynd, Bossie, or anyone else working on "The Big Picture" discussed that project with RNC officials or the Bush-Cheney reelection committee, they could be violating the law.
"This kind of common vendor arrangement would raise serious questions about whether the law's coordination restrictions are being complied with," said Fred Wertheimer, president of Democracy 21, a nonpartisan organization that advocates stronger enforcement of the campaign finance laws. "That is a factual question that has to be determined by the appropriate enforcement authorities."
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2004/08/20/chetwynd_bossie/print.html

Polls: CBS has Kerry up 1%, i.e. still very tied.

-R

Thursday, August 19, 2004

 
Bush and Missile Defense:
I think those who oppose this ballistic missile system really don't understand the threats of the 21st century. They're living in the past. We're living in the future. We're going to do what's necessary to protect this country. – Bush

Sure; since al-Qaeda, not the Soviet Union is the “threat” at hand, “full” funding of missile defense makes perfect sense. Let’s recall that in 2001 the Administration rejected the transferring of funds from missile defense to anti-terrorism and nuclear non-proliferation efforts.

Global Warming in Britain: They’re facing up to it, or at least anticipating.
John Vidal for the Guardian:

Britain should expect more dangerous flash floods, catastrophic rain and hail storms, droughts and heatwaves from the rapid changes in rainfall patterns brought by global warming, the European Environment Agency (EEA) said yesterday as clean-up operations continued in flooded Boscastle…"We are moving towards more intense rainfall. Drier summers are being punctuated by particularly intense incidents such as we have just seen in Cornwall."
The agency says Europe is warming faster than the global average.
The temperature has risen by an average of 0.95C in the past 100 years and is projected to climb by a further 2.0-6.3C this century as the emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise
http://www.guardian.co.uk/weather/Story/0,2763,1286155,00.html

Another report that focuses less on Britain, more on Europe.
European winters will disappear by 2080 and extreme weather will become more common unless global warming across the continent is slowed, warns a major new report.
Europe is warming more quickly than the rest of the world with potentially devastating consequences, including more frequent heatwaves, flooding, rising sea levels and melting glaciers, says the European Environment Agency (EEA) document, launched on Wednesday.
http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99996302

Oil Shock Coming?
The papers are warming to the subject; the price of oil is not coming down; the supplies are vulnerable- to attacks in Iraq, to refinery disruptions, etc and our economy is not very resilient. This is not a leftie opinion; it’s increasingly the view of the business sector.

With oil prices now in the high $40s (WTI basis), there is good reason to treat this development as yet another in a long string of energy shocks. The impact of such disruptions depends very much on context -- namely, the vulnerability, or lack thereof, in the underlying economy. When a weak economy is hit by any type of a shock, recession normally results. Conversely, a strong economy is better insulated to withstand such a blow. Most of the oil shocks of the past fall into the former category -- hitting economies when they are vulnerable. Unfortunately, the Oil Shock of 2004 fits that script to a tee. http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20040819-thu.html#anchor0

WMD Follow-up: David Kay Roasts Condi
Now an outsider, he’s gotten much more blunt.

Dr. Kay did not identify Ms. Rice by name in his often-impassioned testimony. But his remarks were clearly aimed at her performance and reflected a widespread view among intelligence specialists that Ms. Rice, perhaps Mr. Bush's most trusted aide, and the National Security Council have never been held sufficiently accountable for intelligence failures before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and the Iraq war.
His criticism of the council, which is responsible for coordinating the work of national security agencies in the government, mirrored that made earlier this year by Richard A. Clarke, Ms. Rice's former top counterterrorism deputy, who accused her of paying little attention to dire intelligence threats throughout the spring and summer of 2001 that Al Qaeda was about to strike against the United States.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/19/politics/19panel.html

New York, 9/11 and the Republican Convention
New Yorkers hopefully have not forgotten that the Administration tried to shortchange them with 9/11 funds, and that the Bushies have never hesitated- as per the convention- to exploit the NY-based tragedy.

Ted Rall’s Common Dreams piece evokes the 1976 Daily News headline (Ford to NY: Drop Dead)
NYC to GOP: Drop Dead: …Anti-Republican sentiment is rising to a fever pitch here as the dog days tick down to the dreaded affair. A poll cited by the local ABC affiliate shows 83 percent of New Yorkers don't want their city to host the RNC. And many of them are planning to do something about it. http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0818-11.htm

Swift Boat Follow-up:
Right wing talk radio persists in hammering away on an hourly basis about Kerry’s alleged fabrication of his war record. The anti-Kerry ad continues to play with mixed results. One poll reported on MSNBC said that about 30% of independent-swing voters who had been leaning to Kerry changed their mind after seeing it. Yet, in Ohio, where the ad has been shown big time, Kerry’s numbers are up (see below).

The well-funded lying liars ran into trouble when their records were requested so as to further verify their charges against Kerry. One Larry Thurlow, one of the most vociferous critics, refused the Washington Post’s request for his records, specifically seeking to confirm the charge that Kerry was not under fire in the incident that led to his receiving his Bronze Star.

The WaPost learns- via the Freedom of Information Act- that Kerry’s account is confirmed, Thurlow’s is rubbish.
Newly obtained military records of one of Sen. John F. Kerry's most vocal critics, who has accused the Democratic presidential candidate of lying about his wartime record to win medals, contradict his own version of events.
In newspaper interviews and a best-selling book, Larry Thurlow, who commanded a Navy Swift boat alongside Kerry in Vietnam, has strongly disputed Kerry's claim that the Massachusetts Democrat's boat came under fire during a mission in Viet Cong-controlled territory on March 13, 1969. Kerry won a Bronze Star for his actions that day.
But Thurlow's military records, portions of which were released yesterday to The Washington Post under the Freedom of Information Act, contain several references to "enemy small arms and automatic weapons fire" directed at "all units" of the five-boat flotilla. Thurlow won his own Bronze Star that day, and the citation praises him for providing assistance to a damaged Swift boat "despite enemy bullets flying about him."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A13267-2004Aug18?language=printer

Conservative Chris Matthews (“Hardball” on MSNBC), went ballistic on the ‘Swiftie renegades, ripped apart his anti-Kerry guest and told viewers that Administration spokespersons refused to appear. Kerry’s answering back also was necessary, helpful.

What’s Happening, Iraq: Sadr still has not settled, and we’re resorting to air power as the weapon of choice in heavily populated urban areas. The media are hardly commenting, as we aim bombs, missiles, etc at Sadr City, a virtual slum that houses 2 million as well as Samarra, Najaf, Fallujah…you get the picture.

Agence France Presse’s report (via spacewar.com):.
"Heavy overnight US bombing of Kut killed 84 people and wounded nearly 180 others, a day after clashes between Iraqi police and Shiite militiamen in the southern city, a hospital official said… Police Colonel Salam Fakhri said the bombing started at 1:00 am Wednesday and lasted until 3:00 am. 'The bombing was concentrated in Al-Sharkia district as the US military felt there were a lot of Shiite militiamen in that area. It also has an office of (radical Shiite Muslim cleric and militia chief) Moqtada Sadr,' he said." http://www.spacewar.com/2004/040812170350.4tvl64e1.html

And,
Meanwhile, on Thursday in Samarra, 500-pound bombs were dropped on two "known enemy locations" killing, according to the American military, a suspiciously well-rounded-off 50 "anti-Iraqi forces" ("But Dr Abdul Hamid al-Samarrai told AFP news agency at the main hospital that most of the casualties were women and children"). http://www.tomdispatch.com/index.mhtml?emx=x&pid=1687

And, Sadr’s forces targeted the oil sector
Iraqi Shiite sources say the Mehdi Army has launched several coordinated attacks on oil sector objects in the southern Iraq. After overrunning corporate Iraqi and Western security guards, militants blasted the southern pipelines and set several oil wells on fire in many places close to Basra and Al Amara. http://www.stratfor.com/coms2/page_home

What’s Happening, Iran:
They’ve learned the lesson of Iraq.

Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani warned that Iran might launch a preemptive strike against US forces in the region to prevent an attack on its nuclear facilities."We will not sit (with arms folded) to wait for what others will do to us. Some military commanders in Iran are convinced that preventive operations which the Americans talk about are not their monopoly," Shamkhani told Al-Jazeera TV when asked if Iran would respond to an American attack on its nuclear facilities.
America is not the only one present in the region. We are also present, from Khost to Kandahar in Afghanistan; we are present in the Gulf and we can be present in Iraq," said Shamkhani, speaking in Farsi to the Arabic-language news channel through an interpreter."The US military presence (in Iraq) will not become an element of strength (for Washington) at our expense. The opposite is true, because their forces would turn into a hostage" in Iranian hands in the event of an attack, he said.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/101754/1/.html

Michael Moore to release two new books …by November…
1) The Official Fahrenheit 9/11 Reader, a companion book to the DVD, and
2) Will They Ever Trust Us Again?, a collection of letters written to Moore by U.S. soldiers in Iraq.

Democrat” Zell Miller to nominate Bush
He’s a Democrat in name only, used for the past years by the Administraiton to claim “bi-partisan” support. His retirement is cause for celebration.

Polls: Hardly conclusive…

Pennsylvania: Kerry 48 Bush 43
Iowa: Kerry 49%, Bush 47% (Strategic Vision)
Minnesota: Kerry 49%, Bush 44% (Strategic Vision)
Ohio: Bush 49%, Kerry 46% (Strategic Vision)
Ohio: Kerry 48%, Bush 46% (University of Cincinnati)
Ohio: Kerry 52%, Bush 43% (CNN/USA Today/Gallup)

Nationally, the Economist poll has Kerry leading Bush 48% to 41%.
A new Harris Poll has Bush and Kerry tied, 47% to 47%, among likely voters.

-R

Wednesday, August 18, 2004

 
Does this look familiar? “Astroturf” continues
New job figures and other recent economic data show that America’s economy is strong and getting stronger – and that the President’s jobs and growth plan is working. The Labor Department announced that employers added 288,000 new jobs in April. In total, over 1.1 million jobs have been added since August, with 8 consecutive months of gains.

I’ve heard/seen this template countless times- several letters-to-the editor and Administration spokespersons cite it, invariably word-for-word. If you Google it, you’ll find upwards of 60 letters-to-the-editor in U.S. papers.
Its origin: The Bush campaign website. http://www.georgewbush.com/Economy/WriteNewspapers.aspx?AgendaID=2

They are very organized and methodical…

What’s Happening, Iraq: Democracy in Action?
The prime minister is a bully; now, troubling reports as to the attitude of the police. Where are the U.S. media? This dispatch from a second-tier paper in Australia.
IRAQI police have threatened to kill every journalist working in the holy city of Najaf, where US forces are locked in a tense stand-off with Moqtada Sadr's Mehdi Army.After a series of veiled warnings to leave on Sunday, two marked police cars pulled up at dusk outside the Sea of Najaf hotel on the outskirts of town, where Arab and Western journalists are staying.
Ten uniformed policemen walked into the hotel and demanded that the al-Arabiya, Reuters and AP correspondents go with them.
Journalists told them they were not there, but the policemen found and arrested Ahmed al-Salahih, the al-Arabiya correspondent, who the day before had been given a special exemption from the earlier eviction orders.
A uniformed lieutenant then told the assembled journalists and hotel staff: "We are going to open fire on this hotel. I'm going to smash it all, kill you all, and I'm going to put four snipers to target anybody who goes out of the hotel. You have brought it upon yourselves."
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,10478772%255E401,00.html

James Carroll: Crusade: Chronicles of an Unjust War. His latest book. Assuming Garry Wills is on the mark: "The war in Iraq has been a victory of moral fervor over moral clarity. The first without the second is a curse on itself and others. James Carroll brings to bear — I hope not too late — the moral clarity we so badly need."

The Powells.com pitch:
A devastating indictment of the Bush administration's war policies from the bestselling author and respected moral authorityWith the words "this Crusade, this war on terror," George W. Bush defined the purpose of his presidency. And just as promptly, James Carroll-Boston Globe columnist, son of a general, former antiwar chaplain and activist, and recognized voice of ethical authority-began a week-by-week argument with the administration over its actions. In powerful, passionate bulletins, Carroll dissected the President's exploitation of the nation's fears, invocations of a Christian mission, and efforts to overturn America's traditional relations-with other nations and its own citizens. Crusade, the collection of Carroll's searing columns, offers a comprehensive and tough-minded critique of the war on terror. From Carroll's first rejection of "war" as the proper response to Osama bin Laden, to his prescient verdict of failure in Iraq, to his never-before-published analysis of the faith-based roots of current U.S. policies, this volume displays his rare insight and scope. Combining clear moral consciousness, an acute sense of history, and a real-world grasp of the unforgiving demands of politics, Crusade is a compelling call for the rescue of America's noblest traditions.A cry from the heart, a record of protest, and a permanently relevant analysis, Carroll's work confronts the Bush era and measures it against what America was meant to be. http://www.powells.com/cgi-bin/biblio?inkey=8-0805077030-0&partner_id=28466

What Kerry Didn’t Say
Nebraska Republican Representative Doug Bereuter announced that the Iraq war was “a mistake,” that it was a “dangerous, costly mess” that was “not justified”, that as a result, “our country's reputation around the world has never been lower and our alliances are weakened."

From the Lincoln Star Journal:
"I've reached the conclusion, retrospectively, now that the inadequate intelligence and faulty conclusions are being revealed, that all things being considered, it was a mistake to launch that military action," Bereuter wrote in a letter to constituents in the final days of his congressional career.That's especially true in view of the fact that the attack was initiated "without a broad and engaged international coalition," the 1st District congressman said."Knowing now what I know about the reliance on the tenuous or insufficiently corroborated intelligence used to conclude that Saddam maintained a substantial WMD (weapons of mass destruction) arsenal, I believe that launching the pre-emptive military action was not justified." http://www.journalstar.com/articles/2004/08/18/top_story/10053833.txt
Kristof: The Nuclear Shadow:
Held onto this for several days…for obvious reasons. Nick had two articles on this, as he notes, but this is an election year, so we don’t focus on issues.
As I wrote in my last column, there is a general conviction among many experts - though, in fairness, not all - that nuclear terrorism has a better-than-even chance of occurring in the next 10 years. Such an attack could kill 500,000 people.
Yet U.S. politicians have utterly failed to face up to the danger.
"Both Bush administration rhetoric and Kerry rhetoric emphasize keeping W.M.D. out of the hands of terrorists as a No. 1 national security priority," noted Michèlle Flournoy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "And when you look at what could have been done in the last few years, versus what has been done, there's a real gap."
So what should we be doing? First, it's paramount that we secure uranium and plutonium around the world. That's the idea behind the U.S.-Russian joint program to secure 600 metric tons of Russian nuclear materials. But after 12 years, only 135 tons have been given comprehensive upgrades. Some 340 tons haven't even been touched.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/14/opinion/14kristof.html?n=Top%2fOpinion%2fEditorials%20and%20Op%2dEd%2fOp%2dEd%2fColumnists%2fNicholas%20D%20Kristof&pagewanted=print&position=

Plame Investigation:
The subpoenas are still going out, now to reporter Judith Miller, her second. Results, please!

Bank of America summarily fires Fleet workers Wednesday’s paper:
Bank of America Corp. plans to lay off hundreds of tellers and other branch employees at Fleet banks today, asking them to leave the building immediately as part of the process, according to documents obtained by the Globe and Fleet branch managers told of the decision.
The layoffs will affect nearly every city and town in which Fleet does business, as the North Carolina bank continues to absorb the Boston-based FleetBoston Financial Corp. Bank of America plans to convert Fleet's 1,500 branches to its own model, which for the most part uses fewer full-time staff members per branch, the Fleet workers said.
In addition to the layoffs, Bank of America plans to move some employees from branch to branch and to reduce some staff members' hours. Branch managers learned of the planned cutbacks at a meeting in late July, but staff members are expected to be told today.
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2004/08/18/hundreds_of_fleet_layoffs_expected?mode=PF

Health Care: Bob Kuttner on the ‘drugs from Canada’ issue
Kuttner zeroes in on our accepting the frame of the politicians and the pharmaceutical lobby. They get us to focus on whether we can import Canadian drugs and whether they’re safe. The issue that matters is not the importation of drugs, but whether we can import the Canadian health care system… or something similarly comprehensive and cost-efficient, with controlled drug prices.

There is something quite lunatic about the entire debate on whether to permit imports of drugs from Canada. It's not as if Canada manufactures drugs more cheaply. Nor are drugs like trees, or bauxite, or hydro power, which just happen to be naturally plentiful in Canada.
No, the cheaper Canadian drugs are the same ones sold at higher prices in the United States, and either exported or licensed for manufacture in Canada.
Why are they cheaper up north? Because Canada has a policy of controlling drug prices through its national health insurance system. As Deborah Stone, a health policy expert at Dartmouth, has observed, it's not the drugs we should be importing, it's the policy.
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2004/08/18/canadian_drugs_arent_the_cure/
Bush Flip Flops: via Al Franken
George W. Bush has a funny way of flip-flopping on the issues.
He was against a Homeland Security Department. FLIP
Then he was for it. FLOPHe was against the McCain Feingold campaign finance bill. FLIPBut then he was for it. FLIP-FLOP Bush said he was for free trade. FLIPPITY
But then he put on steel tariffs. FLOP
Then he was against the tariffs again. FLIPPITY FLOP
Bush said the states should decide about gay marriage. FLIPPITY
Then he was for changing the Constitution. FLIPPITY FLOP, OR IS IT FLOPPITY FLIP?
Bush said he would put mandatory caps on Carbon Dioxide. FLOOPITY
Then he said he wouldn’t. FLOOPPITY-FLEE
Bush said he’d leave no child behind. FLOPITTY
But refused to fund it, leaving millions of children of behind. BYE BYE POOR CHILDREN, WE’RE LEAVING YOU BEHIND, SORRY. OH, I CAN’T SEE YOU NOW, YOU’RE SO FAR BEHIND. I’VE FORGOTTEN ABOUT YOU.
Bush said he against an independent 9/11 commission. FLIIIIIIIIIIIIIP
But then reluctantly agreed to one. FLOPPITY FLOOP
Bush said we were going to war in Iraq to disarm Saddam Hussein. FLIPPITY
But when it turned out there weren’t any WMD’s, he said the war was to fight al Qaeda. FLIPPITY-FLOPPITY
But then he admitted there was no evidence of ties between Saddam and al Qaeda FLIPPITY-FLOOPITY-FLOOP
So then he said the war was to bring Western style democracy to the entire Middle East. FLIPPITY-FLOOPITY-FLOP, FLOP FLOP FLOP FLOP
He said he wouldn’t invade Iraq without a vote in the UN. FLIP
But then he invaded without a vote. FLOPPITY FLOOP
http://209.208.176.243/bin/blogExcerpts.cfm?blogId=1&prg=3

Polls: Zogby terms Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia to be swing states.

And, more evidence of how close it is. Nevada and Colorado in play. Wisconsin was Gore’s. As the Republican convention is upcoming… well, it’s still basically tied.
And:
Nevada: Bush 47%, Kerry 46% (Rasmussen)
Colorado: Kerry 47%, Bush 47% (Survey USA)
Pennsylvania: Kerry 48%, Bush 43% (Quinnipiac)
Michigan: Kerry 48%, Bush 42% (Strategic Vision)
Wisconsin: Kerry 47%, Bush 46% (Strategic Vision)

Also, a very tight Senate race:
Colorado: Coors (R) 48%, Salazar (D) 47% (Survey USA)

-R

Tuesday, August 17, 2004

 
Wal-Mart PR Drive:
And: Don’t forget it’s been chronicled by the LA Times: http://www.latimes.com/news/custom/showcase/la-walmart-sg.storygallery
Wal-Mart stung by criticism of its labor practices, expansion plans and other business tactics, is turning to public radio, public television and even journalists in training to try to improve its image.
So far this year, the company has become a sponsor on National Public Radio, where recorded messages promote its stores. It has underwritten a popular talk show, "Tavis Smiley," accompanied by similar promotional messages, on a public television station in California.
And earlier this month, Wal-Mart announced plans to award $500,000 in scholarships to minority students at journalism programs around the country, including Howard University, University of Southern California and Columbia University.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/16/business/16walmart.html

Chavez:
Jimmy Carter confirms that there was no fraud in the Venezuelan elections; the opposition and the Bush Administration made the predictable claims anyway.

Vietnam Update on Agent Orange
100 Vietnamese citizens have joined in a class-action lawsuit against more than 30 chemical companies, seeking compensation for exposure to Agent Orange during the Vietnam War.

The suit, originally filed by only three plaintiffs in a New York federal court on January 30, is the first time Vietnamese citizens have ever sought legal compensation for the use of the defoliant by U.S. forces during the conflict. The majority of the plaintiffs joined in the lawsuit over the past week.
As many as 2 million Vietnamese are thought to be suffering from the effects of exposure to Agent Orange, according to Kenneth Herrmann, director of the Vietnam Program at the State University of New York at Brockport.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/LAW/08/15/agent.orange.suit/index.html

Bushies Rolling Back Regulations:
April 21 was an unusually violent day in Iraq; 68 people died in a car bombing in Basra, among them 23 children. As the news went from bad to worse, President Bush took a tough line, vowing to a group of journalists, "We're not going to cut and run while I'm in the Oval Office."
On the same day, deep within the turgid pages of the Federal Register, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration published a regulation that would forbid the public release of some data relating to unsafe motor vehicles, saying that publicizing the information would cause "substantial competitive harm" to manufacturers.
As soon as the rule was published, consumer groups yelped in complaint, while the government responded that it was trying to balance the interests of consumers with the competitive needs of business. But hardly anyone else noticed, and that was hardly an isolated case.
Allies and critics of the Bush administration agree that the Sept. 11 attacks, the war in Afghanistan and the war in Iraq have preoccupied the public, overshadowing an important element of the president's agenda: new regulatory initiatives. Health rules, environmental regulations, energy initiatives, worker-safety standards and product-safety disclosure policies have been modified in ways that often please business and industry leaders while dismaying interest groups representing consumers, workers, drivers, medical patients, the elderly and many others.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/14/politics/14bush.html?ei=1&en=776dcfa93b261d6b&ex=1093493927&pagewanted=print&position=
One example- TB:
Tuberculosis had sneaked up again, reappearing with alarming frequency across the United States. The government began writing rules to protect 5 million people whose jobs put them in special danger. Hospitals and homeless shelters, prisons and drug treatment centers -- all would be required to test their employees for TB, hand out breathing masks and quarantine those with the disease. These steps, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration predicted, could prevent 25,000 infections a year and 135 deaths.
By the time President Bush moved into the White House, the tuberculosis rules, first envisioned in 1993, were nearly complete. But the new administration did nothing on the issue for the next three years.
Then, on the last day of 2003, in an action so obscure it was not mentioned in any major newspaper in the country, the administration canceled the rules. Voluntary measures, federal officials said, were effective enough to make regulation unnecessary.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A1315-2004Aug14?language=printer

Reverse the Rolls: What should Kerry ask of Bush?
Aside from hypothetical debate questions, the fact that the Bushies challenge Kerry, pose yes or no’ questions such as ‘Would you support the war if you had known that no WMD existed?’ The rolls CAN be switched.
One idea, for example: “Mr. Bush, our 41st president (GHW Bush) had been widely quoted as saying that to invade Iraq would alienate our allies and would leave us with horrendous security problems. Was he correct?”

Have fun; make one up.

The Case for Progressive Hope/Support for Kerry:
As this blog, like many before it, is so focused on the Election, I thought this essay was fitting. Some of us worry that if Kerry wins, progressives will lose their ardor/focus and, as in the Clinton years, too much will worsen. But Naomi Klein makes the opposite case, that we need a Kerry win to get rid of Bush, our “distraction-in-chief”, and again focus on the issues.

We know this, yet there is something about George W. Bush's combination of ignorance, piety and swagger that triggers a condition in progressives I've come to think of as Bush Blindness. When it strikes, it causes us to lose sight of everything we know about politics, economics and history and to focus exclusively on the admittedly odd personalities of the people in the White House. Other side effects include delighting in psychologists' diagnoses of Bush's warped relationship with his father and brisk sales of Bush "dum gum"--$1.25.
This madness has to stop, and the fastest way of doing that is to elect John Kerry, not because he will be different but because in most key areas--Iraq, the "war on drugs," Israel/Palestine, free trade, corporate taxes--he will be just as bad. The main difference will be that as Kerry pursues these brutal policies, he will come off as intelligent, sane and blissfully dull. That's why I've joined the Anybody But Bush camp: Only with a bore like Kerry at the helm will we finally be able to put an end to the presidential pathologizing and focus on the issues again
. http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20040816&s=klein

The Media:
The wonderful resource and former WBCN News Dissector Danny Schechter looks at the media. He fears that they’re performing mea culpas as to their 2003 Iraqi coverage, but making no essential changes.

In short, most of our media, with the exception, perhaps, of excellent reporting by Knight Ridder and some exemplary dissenting journalists, still largely support the war including the government's rationalizations and narrative. ("Support" can be measured in what is covered and what is not, what experts we hear from and which we do not, and how many thoughtful Iraqi's themselves make it into our news.)

These larger media failures have still not been admitted, much less debated. That's why the term "weapons of mass deception" still applies to our media coverage of a war that is at war with the truth.
http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=21&ItemID=6050%20

NY Repub Convention Demonstrations: Wise? Intimidation
Two separate issues here. Undoubtedly either some elements of the protesters will be deemed “violent”; they could be planted provocateurs. I fear a replication of Chicago, 1968, where the reaction against the protests likely swelled Nixon’s vote. And, the FBI has been traveling the country “interviewing” potential protesters. The Times editorialized against it today, and noted yesterday, The Federal Bureau of Investigation has been questioning political demonstrators across the country, and in rare cases even subpoenaing them, in an aggressive effort to forestall what officials say could be violent and disruptive protests at the Republican National Convention in New York.

Florida…again: Krugman
Listing possible actions to counter possible/probable fraud in Florida, the columnist reinforces our concern that democracy is threatened.

It's horrifying to think that the credibility of our democracy - a democracy bought through the courage and sacrifice of many brave men and women - is now in danger. It's so horrifying that many prefer not to think about it. But closing our eyes won't make the threat go away. On the contrary, denial will only increase the chances of a disastrously suspect election. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/17/opinion/17krugman.html?hp

-R

Monday, August 16, 2004

 
Venezuela: Chavez Victorious
Despite the best efforts of convicted Iran-Contragatee Eliot Abrams, Chavez apparently won by a comfortable margin, estimated at 58% of the vote. Claims that he was a divider, not a uniter, a preacher of class conflict, didn’t work. [Ultimately, Venezuela used electronic voting machines that provided a paper trail.]
The righteous Bushies undoubtedly will claim electoral fraud; [the opposition already has.] Projection, projection… Don’t expect the Administration to give up its efforts to oust the anti-oligarchy Chavez. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3569012.stm http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,1284125,00.html

What’s Happening, Iraq: Most dangerous place on Earth
Yesterday's kidnapping and subsequent freeing of James Brandon, a freelance journalist in Iraq, is just the latest in a series of abductions of foreigners that have swept the country, and has highlighted once again the perils of working in arguably the most dangerous country in the world.
Since the occupation began, dozens of westerners have been snatched by a variety of different groups - from insurgents loyal to the old regime and seeking to make a political point, to bands of armed robbers who just want hard cash.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/print/0,3858,4993126-103550,00.html
Election Plan Sinks into Chaos
They tried to convene a huge convention to take further steps toward a “constitutional democracy”, but wound up in “siege-like disorder”, including mortar shells landing nearby.
Just as American troops in Najaf have failed so far to quell an uprising by a rebel Shiite cleric, Moktada al-Sadr, so on Sunday's showing here, American political plans for Iraq remain hostage to the violence that has made much of the country enemy territory for the Americans. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/16/international/middleeast/16baghdad.html
Our position is bleak: it can be described as ‘no way out’ or in the dilemma, ‘How can you defeat al-Qaeda like groups in a way that doesn’t generate an even greater number of new recruits?’

Or, as Fred Kaplan’s (excellent) Slate piece summarizes, “The U.S. military- the only force in Iraq remotely capable of keeping the country from falling apart- finds itself in a maddening situation where tactical victories yield strategic setbacks.”
More at http://www.slate.com/id/2105127/

News from Florida: Not reassuring.
Voter confidence took another blow in Florida this week when 22,000 absentee ballots mailed to Palm Beach County residents contained misleading and outdated information about verifying their vote. The ballots indicate that without the signature of a witness, votes would not be counted in the November election. In fact, a Florida law effective July 1 explicitly eliminated the requirement of a witness signature for absentee ballots.The responsibility for this mistake lies solely with Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections, Theresa Lepore. As Lepore explained in the Palm Beach Post on Thursday, "Everybody looked at it, and no one caught it." Remember Theresa Lepore? She was Supervisor of Elections during the 2000 election when thousands of Palm Beach County butterfly ballots were kept from being recounted. She is also an ally of Jeb Bush in opposing a paper trail for the faulty electronic voting machines she helped install. http://blogforamerica.com/

Bob Herbert of the NY Times adds his thoughts, about state police officers interrogating elderly black voters in Orlando as part of an “investigation” that is frightening / intimidating voters and election volunteers.
Florida is a state that's very much in play in the presidential election, with some polls showing John Kerry in the lead. A heavy-handed state police investigation that throws a blanket of fear over thousands of black voters can only help President Bush.
The long and ugly tradition of suppressing the black vote is alive and thriving in the Sunshine State. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/16/opinion/16herbert.html?hp

Oil
Lots of good pieces in the NY Times business section over the last few days, as the new high price (almost $47/barrel) is increasingly accepted as a harbinger of tougher times ahead.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency now predicts global demand will escalate to 84 million barrels a day by next year. That’s notable as they had just predicted 82.6 in the early part of the year. This is only the latest low ball estimation, meaning we’re constantly revising the date that Peak Oil is reached/passed, that oil theoretically runs out sooner than (the previously estimated) 2054. http://omrpublic.iea.org/, http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&refer=us&sid=agYsLU2ERCCc , http://pubs.usgs.gov/dds/dds-060/

Aljazerra: The Allawi government silenced Aljazeera in Iraq, but they continue from their base in Qatar. [“Control Room” which gives one a view of the network in the run-up to the Iraq invasion, is marvelous.]

Several Iraqi officials working within the interim government have resigned in protest of the US-led assault on Najaf and Kut. Sixteen of Najaf's 30-member provincial council resigned in protest at the US-led assault on the Najaf as fighting between the Mahdi Army loyal to Muqtada al-Sadr and US occupation forces entered its eighth day."
The US attack on Najaf has been condemned by Arab and non-Arab organisations who say the level of aggression is unacceptable and that the consequences could be serious. The Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) issued a statement received by Aljazeera condemning what it described as 'the US aggression against Najaf. ''The US occupation forces must withdraw from Najaf and the whole country (Iraq)' said the statement."
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/4BAF409C-2505-4B6E-88AD-AC38F7E31F5B.htm

Bush on the Campaign Trail: Softball City: George is grilled by the faithful:
Take, for example, one of the first queries at the "Ask President Bush'' session in Beaverton, Ore., on Friday:
"I'm wondering if I can get some inauguration tickets?''

Or consider this from Albuquerque on Wednesday:
"Can I introduce my mother and mother-in-law, who are new citizens to this country?''

Many times the questions aren't even questions at all. Exhibit A might be these words from an audience member in Niceville, Fla., on Tuesday:
"I'm 60 years old and I've voted Republican from the very first time I could vote. And I also want to say this is the very first time that I have felt that God was in the White House.''
"Thank you,'' Mr. Bush replied, to applause.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/16/politics/campaign/16letter.html

Who’s the Flip Flopper?
If you know anyone you need to convince- relatives in Ohio, Florida, for example, send ‘em this, on the multitude of Bush flip-flops. http://www.americanprogress.org/site/pp.asp?c=biJRJ8OVF&b=42263

Zogby Poll: Often seen as the most reliable, it reports Kerry up 4%.
Most interesting statistic: "Voters with active passports prefer Kerry 58% to 35%, while those without a passport are for Bush 48% to 39%."

-R

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