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Tuesday, November 23, 2004

 
Budget Chicanery As during the campaign, they’ll do ‘whatever it takes’…

Republican budget writers say they may have found a way to cut the federal deficit even if they borrow hundreds of billions more to overhaul the Social Security system: Don't count all that new borrowing.
As they lay the groundwork for what will probably be a controversial fight over Social Security, Republican lawmakers and the Bush administration are examining a number of accounting strategies that would allow the expensive transition to a partially privatized Social Security system without -- at least on paper -- expanding the country's record annual budget deficits. The strategies include, for example, moving the costs of Social Security reform "off-budget" so they are not counted against the government's yearly shortfall.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A5525-2004Nov22.html

Nervousness About the Economy
Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment banking giant Morgan Stanley, has a public reputation for being bearish.

But you should hear what he's saying in private.

Roach met select groups of fund managers downtown last week, including a group at Fidelity.

His prediction: America has no better than a 10 percent chance of avoiding economic ``armageddon.''

Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the Herald has obtained a copy of Roach's presentation. A stunned source who was at one meeting said, ``it struck me how extreme he was - much more, it seemed to me, than in public.''

Roach sees a 30 percent chance of a slump soon and a 60 percent chance that ``we'll muddle through for a while and delay the eventual armageddon.''

The chance we'll get through OK: one in 10. Maybe.
http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=55356

Comment from Krugman. He’s on vacation, but still talking
"If you go back and you look at the sources of the blow-up of Argentine debt during the 1990s, one little-appreciated thing is that social security privatization was a important source of that expansion of debt," said Krugman.
In 2001, Argentina finally defaulted on an estimated $100 billion in debt, the largest such event in modern economic history.

BANANA REPUBLIC?
"So if you ask the question do we look like Argentina, the answer is a whole lot more than anyone is quite willing to admit at this point. We've become a banana republic."
Crisis might take many forms, he said, but one key concern is the prospect that Asian central banks may lose their appetite for U.S. government debt, which has so far allowed the United States to finance its twin deficits.
A deeper plunge in the already battered U.S. dollar is another possible route to crisis, the professor said.
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=615&u=/nm/20041122/pl_nm/economy_crisis_krugman_dc_1&printer=1

We Knew it Wasn’t About the Issues. Folks still aren’t comfortable with the ‘Bush Agenda.’
After a brutally fought election campaign, Americans are optimistic about the next four years under President Bush, but they have reservations about central elements of the second-term agenda that Mr. Bush presented in defeating Senator John Kerry, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.
At a time when the White House has portrayed Mr. Bush's 3.5-million-vote victory as a mandate, the poll found that Americans are at best ambivalent about Mr. Bush's plans to reshape Social Security, rewrite the tax code, cut taxes and appoint conservative judges to the bench. There is continuing disapproval of Mr. Bush's handling of the war in Iraq, with a plurality now saying it was a mistake to invade Baghdad the first place.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/22/politics/22cnd-poll.html?oref=login&hp&ex=1101186000&en=34ccb5e9d2fe1ba2&ei=5094&partner=homepage

Our priorities: CBS survey:
"What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?"
War in Iraq 25%
Economy/Jobs 18%
Terrorism (general) 11%
Health care 6%
Miscellaneous moral values 4%
The President 3%
Social Security/Medicare 2%
Education 2%
Poverty/Homelessness 2%Foreign policy 2%Defense/Military 2%Other 17%
Unsure 6%

So, moral values…4%. Hmmmmmmm.

Olbermann, on the job. Appreciation by Maureen Farrell: I’ve appreciated the guy for years- SportsCenter [ESPN], a few stops in between, and now Countdown.

It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. While some in the mainstream media were finally paying attention to an important story as it was unfolding (rather than waiting three years, ala the New York Times), others were taking the usual safe and tired tact.
It all started on Monday, Nov. 7, when, inspired by a Cincinnati Enquirer story on how Warren County Ohio officials had "locked down" the administration building on election night and restricted open access to the vote count there, Keith Olbermann began reporting on
voting irregularities across the country. "We have heard the message on the Voting Angst and will continue to cover it with all prudent speed," Olbermann later wrote on his blog, and sure enough, Countdown with Keith Olbermann doled out nightly nuggets -- not only concerning Votergate, but regarding the media itself. This exchange between Olbermann and Craig Crawford was especially satisfying:
CRAWFORD: "We're often wimps in the media. And we wait for other people to make charges, one political party or another, and then we investigate it. But this is the time to do this. There's still time before the [2004 election] results are certified. It doesn't mean it will change the outcome. But it is good and I congratulate you for
looking at some of these [voting] irregularities.
OLBERMANN: "I congratulate you for joining me on the crap list for saying that there are wimps in the media. Amen, brother.
(LAUGHTER)
OLBERMANN: We know it and now everybody else knows it.
http://www.buzzflash.com/farrell/04/11/far04040.html

Bush: An Appreciation from William Kristol. Makes me cherish the day Kristol made a fool of himself on The Daily Show.

Meanwhile, the offensive in Falluja has gone better than expected, and we are following up in Mosul, Ramadi, and elsewhere as necessary. The president is clearly resolved to mobilize all available military, political, and diplomatic resources to bring off elections in Iraq, and successfully to prosecute the larger war on terror and hasten the transformation of the Middle East.
We know that Bush has been reading Natan Sharansky's fine new book, The Case for Democracy. He's acting as though Alexander Hamilton is on his reading list, too. The "test of a good government," Hamilton argued in The Federalist, "is its aptitude and tendency to produce a good administration."
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/004/942wqnjh.asp

DeLay Avoiding Indictment(?) CBS Report.
House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Texas, appears to have dodged a bullet. The powerful GOP chieftain is unlikely to be indicted by a state grand jury probing alleged campaign finance violations in Texas, according to an official involved in the investigation. "No, no, I really don’t think DeLay will be indicted," the official told CBSNews.com. "And to be quite honest, [DeLay’s] lawyers know that." http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/11/22/politics/main656960.shtml
So, DeLay gets off, the Plame investigation drags on, tons of arms lost in Iraq is forgotten, the 2nd half of the 9/11 Commission which purportedly blasts Administration folk has been “held.” No news fit to print…

U.S. Casualties- off the record. Some of those not “counted.”

How many injured and ill soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines - like Chris Schneider - are left off the Pentagon’s casualty count? Would you believe 15,000? 60 Minutes asked the Department of Defense to grant us an interview. They declined. Instead, they sent a letter, which contains a figure not included in published casualty reports: "More than 15,000 troops with so-called 'non-battle' injuries and diseases have been evacuated from Iraq." Many of those evacuated are brought to Landstuhl in Germany. Most cases are not life-threatening. In fact, some are not serious at all. But only 20 percent return to their units in Iraq. Among the 80 percent who don’t return are GIs who suffered crushing bone fractures; scores of spinal injuries; heart problems by the hundreds; and a slew of psychiatric cases. None of these are included in the casualty count, leaving the true human cost of the war something of a mystery. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/11/19/60minutes/main656756.shtml

-R

Sunday, November 21, 2004

 
Labor Fights Back:
Workers at hair salons, supermarkets, restaurants, discount stores, call centers, car washes and other businesses who have murmured only to one another about off-the-clock work are now speaking up and documenting the illegal practice.
In interviews and in affidavits supporting employee lawsuits, Ms. LeBlue and more than 50 workers from a dozen companies said they were required to do such unpaid work despite federal and state laws that prohibit it and despite recent lawsuits against Wal-Mart and other companies that have highlighted the problem.

"It is prevalent," said Alfred Robinson, director of the wage and hour division of the Labor Department. "It is one of the more common violations of the Fair Labor Standards Act."
Though there have been no formal studies of the practice or of its overall cost to employees, the workers interviewed said off-the-clock work took place at a variety of companies: A&P, J. P. Morgan Chase, Pep Boys, Ryan's Family Steakhouses, TGF Precision HairCutters and Ms. LeBlue's company, SmartStyle, which is part of the Regis Corporation, the nation's largest chain of hairstylists. SmartStyle and many of the other companies say they bar off-the-clock work, and they are fighting the lawsuits.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/19/national/19clock.html

Media Coverage of DeLay Rule:
As justification for altering party rules in the House of Representatives in order to allow Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-TX) to retain his leadership position if indicted by a Texas grand jury on political corruption charges, Republicans have claimed that Travis County, Texas, District Attorney Ronnie Earle, who is investigating DeLay, is doing so for purely partisan reasons. This charge was dutifully echoed on FOX News Channel, and most other news outlets have reported it -- without noting that Earle has, in fact, prosecuted more Democratic politicians than Republican politicians.
While Earle is an elected Democrat, as Media Matters for America has previously
noted, a June 17 editorial in the Houston Chronicle commended his work: "During his long tenure, Travis County District Attorney Ronnie Earle has prosecuted many more Democratic officials than Republicans. The record does not support allegations that Earle is prone to partisan witch hunts." This assertion supports Earle's own claim about his record; a March 6 article in the El Paso Times reported: "Earle says local prosecution is fundamental and points out that 11 of the 15 politicians he has prosecuted over the years were Democrats." http://mediamatters.org/items/200411180003

DeLay allies fight back: The best defense is an offensive offense, especially when reported by the Moonie-owned Washington Times:

This newest contretemps stemmed from a letter the House ethics panel sent Thursday to Rep. Chris Bell, Texas Democrat, saying he violated a series of House rules when he filed a complaint earlier this year against Mr. DeLay. The committee last month admonished Mr. DeLay and said he "went beyond the bounds of acceptable conduct" for a House member in two areas. Mr. DeLay said the new letter to Mr. Bell was further proof that the entire exercise was a failed Democratic attempt to sully him. "The only two members of the House of Representatives that I know of right now that have actually violated the law are Nancy Pelosi and Jim McDermott," Mr. DeLay, Texas Republican, said, prompting Mrs. Pelosi, a California Democrat, to fire back that the charge she broke the law is a lie. "Mr. DeLay's display today and his repeated ethical lapses have brought dishonor on the House of Representatives," she said.

In a move that appears to be a retaliation for the DeLay charges, Rep. David L. Hobson, Ohio Republican, has filed an ethics complaint against Mr. McDermott, a Washington Democrat. The new complaint, reported by U.S. News & World Report's Washington Whispers column yesterday and confirmed by The Washington Times, stems from a 1996 incident in which a couple intercepted and taped a cell-phone conversation Rep. John A. Boehner, Ohio Republican, was having with Republican leaders. The couple passed the tape on to Mr. McDermott, then on the ethics panel, who then leaked the tape to the press, including the New York Times.

After charges bounced up and down the federal courts, a federal district court judge last month ruled that Mr. McDermott "participated in an illegal transaction" and must pay a $60,000 fine, plus Mr. Boehner's attorney's fees. In a statement, Mr. McDermott said he is appealing and expects "the result to be very different." Mr. McDermott said there are First Amendment issued involved in the case, adding that in the complaint, "Congressman Boehner's colleague failed to mention that the U.S. Supreme Court in the past has supported my position. http://insider.washingtontimes.com/articles/normal.php?StoryID=20041120-120205-7948r

They’ve also organized a campaign against the D.A. in Texas who has been indicting DeLay’s allies and may shortly indict DeLay as well.

Abortion Politics: Step-by-step
House and Senate negotiators have tucked a potentially far-reaching anti-abortion provision into a $388 billion must-pass spending bill, complicating plans for Congress to wrap up its business and adjourn for the year.
The provision may be an early indication of the growing political muscle of social conservatives who provided crucial support for Republican candidates, including President Bush, in the election.
House officials said Saturday morning that the final details of the spending measure were worked out before midnight and that the bill was filed for the House vote on Saturday.
The abortion language would bar federal, state and local agencies from withholding taxpayer money from health care providers that refuse to provide or pay for abortions or refuse to offer abortion counseling or referrals. Current federal law, aimed at protecting Roman Catholic doctors, provides such "conscience protection'' to doctors who do not want to undergo abortion training. The new language would expand that protection to all health care providers, including hospitals, doctors, clinics and insurers.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/20/politics/20spend.html?ei=5094&en=34c38192ba5e17fe&hp=&ex=1101013200&partner=homepage&pagewanted=print&position=

Same legislation, different lead: Presidential Yacht? Calling Nancy Pelosi…
The U.S. Congress on Saturday passed a $388 billion package financing government programs in this fiscal year after days of tough talks, but a last minute snag means it may not be sent to President Bush for signing into law for several days. The Senate voted 65-30 for the legislation late on Saturday that sets aside funds for a range of priorities including a presidential yacht, foreign aid and energy. (my italics) http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6875356

Same Legislation, different provision: Tax Returns

A special provision was inserted by Rep. Ernest Istook (R-Ok) which allows the Chair of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees or their “agents” to review any American’s tax return with no restrictions. No privacy law restrictions, criminal or civil penalties would apply. When caught, Republicans said it was a “mistake” and would be repealed. They’ll try anything, and unless they’re caught and/or contested... http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/11/20/tax.returns.ap/

Electoral Cheating via Keith Olbermann:
I still hesitate to endorse the ‘media lock-down’ theory extolled so widely on the net. I've expended a lot of space on the facts of political media passivity and exhaustion, and now I’ll add one factor to explain the collective shrugged shoulder: reading this stuff is hard. It’s hard work.

He notes the Berkeley study [noted in the previous (11/19) blog]:
Hout and his research team consistently insisted they were not alleging that voting was rigged, nor even that what they’ve found actually affected the direction of Florida’s 27 Electoral Votes. They point out that in a worst-case scenario, they see 260,000 “excessives” - and Bush took the state by 350,000 votes. But they insist that based on Florida’s voting patterns in 1996 and 2000, the margin cannot be explained by successful get-out-the-vote campaigns, or income variables, or anything but something rotten in the touch screens.
But more importantly, they say that they ran a similar examination on the voting patterns in Ohio, comparing its paper ballot and electronic results, and found absolutely nothing to suggest either candidate got any “bump” that couldn’t otherwise be explained by past voting patterns, income, turnout, or any other commonplace factor.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6368819/#041118a

Condi and The Media
Very little criticism of Condi [save on Moyers’ NOW] as she moves up; no focusing on the lies. Typical of our upside-down world, the Right- especially Ann Coulter, best-selling Liar- assert that any criticism of Condi is racist. Media Matters follows this one.

Right-wing pundit Ann Coulter labeled Democrats as "racist" for questioning the credentials of national security adviser Condoleezza Rice, recently nominated by President George W. Bush to replace Secretary of State Colin Powell, and conservative Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. Coulter's remarks came during a November 17 discussion on FOX News Channel's Hannity & Colmes of some controversial political cartoons depicting Rice as a pawn of President George W. Bush. http://mediamatters.org/items/200411180009

What’s Happening, Iran: Pushing the Issue. Familiar
Secretary of State Colin L. Powell shared information with reporters Wednesday about Iran's nuclear program that was classified and based on an unvetted, single source who provided information that two U.S. officials said yesterday was highly significant if true but has not yet been verified.

Powell and other senior Cabinet members were briefed last week on the sensitive intelligence. The material was stamped "No Foreign," meaning it was not to be shared with allies, although President Bush decided that portions could be shared last week with British Prime Minister Tony Blair, officials said.

According to one official with access to the material, a "walk-in" source approached U.S intelligence earlier this month with more than 1,000 pages purported to be Iranian drawings and technical documents, including a nuclear warhead design and modifications to enable Iranian ballistic missiles to deliver an atomic strike. The official agreed to discuss the information on the condition of anonymity and only because Powell had alluded to it publicly…The official said the CIA remains unsure about the authenticity of the documents and how they came into the informant's possession. A second official would say only that there are questions about the source of the information.

Officials interviewed by The Washington Post did not know the identity of the source or whether the individual is connected to an Iranian exile group that made fresh accusations about Iran at a news conference Wednesday in Paris. The National Council for Resistance in Iran charged that Iran was enriching uranium and will continue to do so despite the pledge made Sunday to European foreign ministers. http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A61079-2004Nov18?language=printer

Understatement of the Week: Christopher Shays (R-Conn) speaking of the DeLay Protection Act, protecting DeLay’s majority leader status despite the threat of imminent indictment:

"We took a strong stand in 1994 to make clear the Republican conference would live by a higher standard than our Democratic colleagues, We won election in '94 because we were going to be different, and what I continue to see is a slow but very consistent erosion in what made us different." http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A61374-2004Nov18.html

Overly Charitable statement of the Week: ‘Doesn’t anyone besides me realize that these (Bush and Kerry) are two good men who just see the world differently…’-Bill Clinton

He was not a great president; he moved the Democrats to the Right and his failure to keep his pants zipped didn’t help Gore- and probably forced Gore to choose the terrible Joe Leiberman.

Bush and Health Care: The Washington Post surprisingly put out a pointed editorial on the Bush failure. …an extra dose of pain for those of us who know the SCHIP program and its use-it-or-lose-it formula whereby funds for health insurance for kids were lost.

DEFICIT SPENDING didn't bother the Bush administration when the issue was tax cuts. Congress had no trouble finding "savings" to supposedly offset new costs when the costs were in a corporate tax bill stuffed with special-interest provisions. But when it comes to health care for poor children, different, stricter rules seem to apply. This week's lame-duck Congress is poised to leave town without taking any action to restore $1 billion in federal funding for children's health care that wasn't used before its Sept. 30 expiration and therefore reverted to the Treasury. Republican lawmakers say they don't oppose renewing the funding but insist that it has to be paid for with cuts elsewhere. The result is that some 200,000 low-income children will be at risk of losing health coverage in the next three years.

The issue involves the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP), which was launched in 1997 to help states provide coverage to low-income children whose families earn too much to be eligible for Medicaid. With $40 billion in federal matching funds over 10 years, this was the largest expansion of health coverage for children since the adoption of Medicaid in the 1960s; last year alone the program enrolled 5.8 million children. Even as the share of Americans without health insurance is growing, the percentage of children lacking coverage has stayed stable, in large part thanks to Medicaid and SCHIP. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A61330-2004Nov18.html

China’s Role in Latin America: Part II of in-depth NY Times report:

Driven by one the largest and most sustained economic expansions in history, and facing bottlenecks and shortages in Asia, China is increasingly turning to South America as a supplier. It is busy buying huge quantities of iron ore, bauxite, soybeans, timber, zinc and manganese in Brazil. It is vying for tin in Bolivia, oil in Venezuela and copper here in Chile, where last month it displaced the United States as the leading market for Chilean exports. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/20/international/asia/20china.html?oref=login

What’s Happening, Iraq: More of the same- country-wide insurgency, Iraqi troops deserting. Despite evidence to the country, the top marine in Iraq declared the insurgency “broken.”
Painful story in the NY Times of bravery and death (for what?) of U.S. troops. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/21/international/middleeast/21battle.html?hp&ex=1101099600&en=bc339766506f30ca&ei=5094&partner=homepage

And, condemnation by the international Red Cross:
The Red Cross yesterday launched a blistering attack on both sides in the war in Iraq.
The organisation blasted US troops and Iraqi rebels for their "utter contempt for humanity" as the country continues to be torn apart by violence.

And in a broadside which will heap shame on coalition leaders, Red Cross director Pierre Kraehenbuhl pleaded for restraint.

He said: "As hostilities continue in Fallujah and elsewhere, every day seems to bring news of yet another act of utter contempt for the most basic tenet of humanity.
"Like any other armed conflict, this one is subject to limits, and they must be respected at all times."
http://www.sundaymirror.co.uk/news/news/tm_objectid=14895593&method=full&siteid=106694&headline=crisis-in-iraq--there-s-no-humanity-name_page.html

Labor Organizer Killed in Salvador helping locals organize. Gripping story

Gilberto Soto, a union organizer in New Jersey, was so upset by the wages and working conditions of truck drivers in Central America that when he went home to visit his mother in El Salvador and celebrate his 50th birthday this month, he added a week to his vacation to go to ports to see about unionizing them.
On the eve of his birthday, he stepped outside of his family's longtime home in Usulután to talk on his cell phone. "We suddenly heard three shots," recalled his sister Arelí, who was inside. "He immediately called out to my mother, saying, 'Mamá, they're killing me.'”
The killing, on Nov. 5, has deeply unsettled American labor leaders, who called for an investigation. They suspect that Mr. Soto, an organizer for the Teamsters, was gunned down as part of a systematic effort to suppress union activity in El Salvador.
John J. Sweeney, president of the A.F.L.-C.I.O., and James P. Hoffa, president of the Teamsters, met with El Salvador's ambassador in Washington on Tuesday to press his government to track down the killers.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/21/international/americas/21salvador.html?oref=login

-R


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