Thursday, March 27, 2008
What’s Happening, Iraq: At least three Shiite factions contesting for power, as Sadr’s Madhi Army fights with the Badr Brigade which has al-Maliki’s support. Another faction, the Fadhila, is also in Basra.
But that’s clearly too complex for most Americans. So, McCain is following the Bush lead in presenting ‘extremists’ or ‘al-Qaeda’ as the threat; the media often retreat to “insurgents.” Right-wing Talk Radio picks it up and calls the groups ‘The Bad Guys.’
Thousands of supporters of hard-line cleric Moqtada al-Sadr poured into the streets of the Iraqi capital Thursday to protest an ongoing security crackdown against Sadr's militia, as clashes continued in the southern city of Basra, new rocket attacks struck near the U.S. Embassy and a high-profile Iraqi security official was kidnapped.
The United States ordered embassy personnel to stay in reinforced structures because of incoming fire that killed an American on Thursday, the second U.S. fatality this week in the heavily fortified Green Zone.
The Iraqi military, meanwhile, clamped a three-day curfew on the capital in an effort to end fighting between Shiite Muslim militiamen and Iraqi security forces. The curfew order bans unauthorized vehicles and pedestrians from the streets of Baghdad from 11 p.m. Thursday to 5 a.m. Sunday.
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki vowed to press ahead with the crackdown, aimed chiefly at sapping the strength of Sadr's Mahdi Army militia, which controls much of Basra. Maliki's pledge came as saboteurs blew up one of Iraq's two main oil export pipelines from Basra, the country's main oil hub, cutting at least a third of the exports from the southern oil fields, the Reuters news agency reported. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/27/AR2008032700781_pf.html
Sadr’s Power:
However, the more immediate threat to Iraq's stability may stem not from al-Sadr's military might, but his political power to shut down the ministries and services essential to day-to-day life.
At the Health Ministry, where the staff is dominated by officials loyal to al-Sadr, the hallways were nearly empty Wednesday. The doctors, bureaucrats and black-clad militia members who normally roam the corridors heeded al-Sadr's call to stay home to protest the government crackdown.
The ministry controls about 3,000 hospitals and clinics throughout Iraq and an extended strike could severely impair their operations by restricting funds, drugs and other supplies.
Al-Sadr loyalists "can stop all the daily affairs of government," says Hashem Hassan, a communications professor at Baghdad University. "They can stop services, schools, and bring the economy to a standstill."
Sadrist officials also control Kimadia, the state-run company that distributes drugs to hospitals. "They can create chaos whenever they want," says Agron Ferati, country director for the International Medical Corps, a non-profit group.http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20080327/1a_lede27_dom.art.htm
U.S. Response: The Military joins the Administration in insisting that all are good signs, as the Iraqi government is actively engaging ‘the enemy’:
[The United States is] providing air cover and embedded advisers" for the offensive -- as well as upbeat assessments and misleading information about who is being targeted.
There also were ominous new threats. The "truth brigade," a group within the Mahdi Army, threatened to strike oil refineries, power stations, the port, oil pipelines and government institutions within 24 hours if Maliki didn't stop targeting Sadrists, a Sadr official told McClatchy.
Although the Iraqi offensive's success remained unclear, the U.S. military and officials in Washington threw their support behind the operation and took partial credit for it. Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said the Iraqi operation was a "byproduct of the success" of the year-old U.S. troop surge. Stephen Hadley, President Bush's national security adviser, called the operation a "sign of the increased maturation" of the Maliki government.
Maj. Gen. Kevin Bergner . . . said that the operation wasn't against the Mahdi Army, only against outlaws who didn't honor Sadr's freeze. . . .
The situation on the ground suggested otherwise. http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/31662.html
In sum, we’re not getting out. Why? Because the gains made during the Surge need to be solidified. Previously, troops couldn’t leave because we were making gains. Before that, troops remained because the violence had escalated. Before that… Get it? It’s just like the Administration’s tax cuts: When they took over, they said the economy was healthy and needed the tax cuts; when the economy stalled, they said we needed those same tax cuts; when the economy began to partially revive, we needed the tax cuts, etc
Shiites Aren’t Happy with the U.S.
…many Shi'ites are seeing this not just as an example of the Shi'ite Maliki taking on other Shi'ites (including Sadrists) but of America backing the Prime Minister up in a de facto Shi'a civil war. . . .
If the U.S. decides to actively go after the Shi'ite forces in the south, it would mean reopening a southern front where American forces once fought some of the Iraq war's fiercest battles against Sadr but now have only a shadow presence. That would involve draining the concentration of surge troops around Baghdad and the Sunni triangle. It might even require more troop extensions or additional deployments to hold ground and maintain modest gains. Moving against the Shi'ite strongholds could then open opportunities for the Sunni fighters of al-Qaeda to strike Iraqi and U.S. targets in the Sunni triangle as the American heat turns south. . . . http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1725265,00.html
Pakistan: U.S. is Running out of time, as the Pakistanis seek relative autonomy, especially as to engaging al-Qaeda residents.
Top diplomats John Negroponte and Richard Boucher travelled to a mountain fortress near the Afghan border yesterday as part of a hastily announced visit that has received a tepid reception.
On Tuesday, senior coalition partner Nawaz Sharif gave the visiting Americans a public scolding for using Pakistan as a "killing field" and relying too much on Musharraf.
Yesterday the new prime minister, Yousaf Raza Gilani, said he warned President George Bush in a phone conversation that he would prioritise talking as well as shooting in the battle against Islamist extremism. "He said that a comprehensive approach is required in this regard, specially combining a political approach with development," a statement said. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/mar/27/pakistan.usa
That means that our military pursuit of bin Laden and friends could well be limited still further
The United States has escalated its unilateral strikes against al-Qaeda members and fighters operating in Pakistan's tribal areas, partly because of anxieties that Pakistan's new leaders will insist on scaling back military operations in that country, according to U.S. officials.
....Thomas H. Johnson, a research professor at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif., said: "People inside the Beltway are aware that Musharraf's days are numbered, and so they recognize they may only have a few months to do this. Musharraf has . . . very few friends in the world — he probably has more inside the Beltway than in his own country." http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/27/AR2008032700007.html?hpid=topnews
Elsewhere: Rice Price Rise
Rice prices jumped 30 per cent to an all-time high on Thursday, raising fears of fresh outbreaks of social unrest across Asia where the grain is a staple food for more than 2.5bn people.
The increase came after Egypt, a leading exporter, imposed a formal ban on selling rice abroad to keep local prices down, and the Philippines announced plans for a major purchase of the grain in the international market to boost supplies. Global rice stocks are at their lowest since 1976. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d6f1cd74-fc29-11dc-9229-000077b07658.html
West Bank: Hazardous Waste Dumping cited
The West Bank has become a dumping site for hazardous waste - which is making residents sick, say Israeli and Palestinian environmental groups.
Several weeks ago, villagers from Jima'in in the Nablus district complained that Israeli trucks were again dumping waste on Palestinian land.
Ayman Abu Thaher, the deputy director-general of the Palestinian Authority's Environmental Awareness Directorate said such dumping has been going on for years.
"The Israelis are using the West Bank as a cheap and easy alternative for dumping their waste at the expense of the health of Palestinians," he said.
According to Friends of the Earth Middle East (FoEME), a joint Israeli, Palestinian and Jordanian environmental group, improper dumping of contaminants and waste has over time become a threat to the region's drinking water. http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/6C49A57B-E230-4B7A-90D0-4153AA080C18.htm
Detainee Rights: Case in Point
A Justice Department lawyer on Tuesday urged the Supreme Court to limit the legal rights of Americans abroad and rule that two men held by the U.S. military in Iraq cannot challenge their detention in a U.S. court. . . .
The men's cases, being heard together, are the latest in a series of post-9/11 disputes before the high court testing detainees' rights to be heard by a federal judge. In prior cases, a majority of the justices have rejected the Bush administration's attempts to keep detainees of the U.S. military out of regular civilian courts. http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20080326/a_iraqcourt26.art.htm
Dahlia Lithwick comments:
The Bush administration's main argument in this case is a simple one -- a variation of which you may remember from the golden days of lawlessness at Guantanamo: Sure, the military authority in Iraq might look like it's composed of U.S. soldiers, the prisons may appear to be U.S. military jails, the whole effort may seem to be led by the U.S. president, but really these 'enemy combatants' are not under U.S. jurisdiction. Why? Well, just as American troops are merely renting out Gitmo from the Cubans, the authorities that captured and held Omar and Munaf are actually just part of a U.N.-mandated international force. http://www.slate.com/id/2187385/
Supply Side Returns! Re-playing 1981, as the discredited economic idea makes a reappearance
When Ronald Reagan ran for president in 1980, he promised to cut taxes in what seemed, at the time, a magical way. Tax revenue would go up, not down, he said, as the economy boomed in response to lower rates.
Since then, supply-side economics, as it was called — first with derision but then as a label embraced by its supporters — has become a central tenet of Republican political and economic thinking. That’s despite the fact that the big supply-side tax cuts of the 1980s and the 2000s did not work out as advertised, as even most supporters acknowledge.
But advocates see broader economic benefits from lowering tax rates, which is one of the reasons the concept has reappeared as a point of contention in this year’s election campaign, in an amended form.
“What really happens is that the economy grows more vigorously when you lower tax rates,” said Kevin Hassett, an adviser to the presumptive Republican nominee, John McCain, and the director for economic policy studies at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. “It is beyond the reach of economic science to explain precisely why that happens, but it does.” http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/26/business/26supply.html?_r=1&sq=supply%20side%20economics&st=nyt&oref=slogin&scp=2&pagewanted=print
CAMPAIGN: Thursday found both candidates more dutifully sticking to issues. Both recognize that the long-term- Obama’s electability and Clinton’s reputation (and poll numbers)- were suffering.
But prior to Thursday- and perhaps resuming today,
Clinton’s hanging with the Far Right: She’s going to Right media, including the Pittsburgh paper owned by Richard Mellon Scaife, the funder of much of the Clinton Hating of the 90’s. This comes after making peace and more with Fox boss, Rupert Murdoch. Both pieces go back more than a year, Clinton’s version of ‘reaching across the aisle. From 2/16/07:
Christopher Ruddy, who once worked full-time for Mr. Scaife investigating the Clintons and now runs a conservative online publication he co-owns with Mr. Scaife, said, "Both of us have had a rethinking."
"Clinton wasn't such a bad president," Mr. Ruddy said. "In fact, he was a pretty good president in a lot of ways, and Dick feels that way today."
As for the conservative response to Mrs. Clinton's campaign, Mr. Ruddy said, "The level of intensity and anger toward Hillary is not getting to the level that it was toward Bill Clinton when he was president." He added, "She has moderated and developed a separate image." http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/19/us/politics/19clinton.html?ex=1329541200&en=d30d5826db47e539&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss
The Clinton campaign has been pushing an article from the Right publication, American Spectator. Joining the Conspiracy from New Republic blogger Christopher Orr:
Anyone reading this blog is presumably aware that, over the past several weeks, Hillary Clinton has gone out of her way to repeatedly compliment John McCain at Barack Obama's expense.
But consider a few other data points:
1) Matt Drudge hyped a photo of Obama in Somali garb that he claimed (and the Clinton campaign declined to deny) Clinton staffers had been circulating.
2) Bill Clinton went on the Rush Limbaugh show on the day of the Texas primary--after Limbaugh had spent days urging GOP voters in the state to cross over and vote for Clinton in order "rig" the election and ensure that Democrats nominated the weaker of their two candidates.
3) The Clinton campaign has been circulating an article in The American Spectator alleging that an Obama adviser, former Air Force chief Merrill McPeak, is an anti-semite and a drunk.
4) When Clinton attacked Obama on Jeremiah Wright yesterday, she did it at an editorial meeting of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, the vanity publication of Richard Mellon Scaife, while sitting next to Scaife himself.
Drudge. Limbaugh. The American Spectator. Richard Mellon Scaife. What exactly is it going to take before Clinton campaign staffers recognize that they are, in essence, now working for the Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy?
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/03/26/joining-the-conspiracy.aspx
A bit of the Spectator article:
Obama has a Jewish problem and McPeak's bigoted views are emblematic of what they are. Obama can issue all the boilerplate statements supporting Israel's right to defend itself he wants. But until he accepts responsibility for allowing people like McPeak so close to his quest for the presidency, Obama's sincerity and judgment will remain open questions. http://www.spectator.org/dsp_article.asp?art_id=12937
James Fallows conveys his upset:
Watching from 12 time zones away, I've tried to stay out of campaign blow-by-blow.
But if, as I assume is true based on Marc Ambinder's report, the Hillary Clinton campaign is circulating a hit job from the American Spectator, this is simply disgusting. (Marc has just confirmed to me that indeed the article came in an on-the-record email from Phil Singer, the Clinton campaign spokesman.)
That the Clinton family would dignify the American Spectator, of all publications, is astonishing to anyone who was alive in the 1990s.
That they would bless this attempt to paint Merrill McPeak as an anti-Semite is grotesque.
I doubt that the author of the hit job ever bothered to speak with or interview McPeak. I have done so many times, during and after his days as Air Force chief of staff (which he was during the first Gulf War). People can agree or disagree with McPeak's foreign policy or his record at the Pentagon -- but that's not what we're talking about here. Any attempt to fish out a quote that will banish him as a bigot is exactly as fair and accurate as depicting Bill Clinton as being personally a racist based on his "fairy tale" and "Jesse Jackson" comments around the time of the South Carolina primary. I say this having heard McPeak lay out his views, starting while the Gulf War was underway 17 years ago, about how to maintain general stability, US interests, and Israeli security in the Middle East.
McPeak may have gone too far in saying that Bill Clinton's earlier comments (that it would be "a great thing if we had an election year where you had two people who loved this country" -- namely, Hillary Clinton and John McCain) amounted to "McCarthyism." But that's a pretty fair description of this latest round. I don't like attempts to stifle argument when they occur in China, and I don't like this in the United States.
I can easily believe that the Spectator would publish such an article. That the Clinton team would circulate it I'm still trying to deal with. http://jamesfallows.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/03/this_is_disgusting_clintons_mc.php
Clinton Fundraisers Pressure Pelosi-Chutzpah!
Her major fundraisers warned The Speaker that her comments about super-delegates respecting the pledged delegate leader were contrary to their understanding of super-delegates’ function. Pelosi re-affirmed her statement/commitment. Capitol Hill Dems have expressed their Resentment of the Clinton wealthy.
ABC News' Political Director David Chalian reports that a Democratic operative unaffiliated with either campaign and familiar with the reaction to the letter among Members of Congress says, "Members of Congress - who are superdelegates - make up the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee" or DCCC from which the donors seemed to be threatening to withhold funds.
"Threatening the DCCC is equal to threatening the superdelegates Sen. Hillary Clinton's trying to court. The Clinton donor letter will just push undeclared superdelegates in Congress leaning toward Obama to endorse him sooner. It also reinforces the narrative that she'll destroy the party to win." http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/03/more-on-those-c.html
Carl Bernstein: The author of a book on Hillary comments:
Since her Arkansas years [I wrote], Hillary Rodham Clinton has always had a difficult relationship with the truth… [J]udged against the facts, she has often chosen to obfuscate, omit, and avoid. It is an understatement by now that she has been known to apprehend truths about herself and the events of her life that others do not exactly share. ” [italics added]
As I noted:
“Almost always, something holds her back from telling the whole story, as if she doesn’t trust the reader, listener, friend, interviewer, constituent—or perhaps herself—to understand the true significance of events…”
The Bosnian episode is a watershed event, because it indelibly brings to mind so many examples of this tendency– from the White House years and, worse, from Hillary Clinton’s take-no-prisoners presidential campaign. Her record as a public person is replete with “misstatements” and elisions and retracted and redacted and revoked assertions…
When the facts surrounding such characteristic episodes finally get sorted out — usually long after they have been challenged — the mysteries and contradictions are often dealt with by Hillary Clinton and her apparat in a blizzard of footnotes, addenda, revision, and disingenuous re-explanation: as occurred in regard to the draconian secrecy she imposed on her health-care task force (and its failed efforts in 1993-94); explanations of what could have been dutifully acknowledged, and deserved to be dismissed as a minor conflict of interest — once and for all — in Whitewater; or her recent Michigan-Florida migration from acceptance of the DNC’s refusal to recognize those states’ convention delegations (when it looked like she had the nomination sewn up) to her re-evaluation of the matter as a grave denial of basic human rights, after she fell impossibly behind in the delegate count. http://ac360.blogs.cnn.com/2008/03/26/hillary-clinton-truth-or-consequences/#more-470
28% of Clinton votes say they’d vote for McCain if Hillary doesn’t make it; 19% of Obama supporters say the same. It’s early and that percentage will dramatically shrink, but it’s a sign of where matters are now.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/105691/McCain-vs-Obama-28-Clinton-Backers-McCain.aspx
-R
