Thursday, February 04, 2010
Economics: Shaky Even Wall Street notices
Fears about financial crises in the wobbling economies of southern Europe and an unexpected increase in U.S. jobless claims sent global stock markets reeling Thursday, posing new challenges for the European Union and the U.S. economic recovery.
Despite several pieces of upbeat economic data at home, the Dow Jones industrial average plunged 2.6 percent, finishing just two points above the 10,000 threshold it first crossed in 1999. Broader U.S. and foreign market indices fell about 3 percent, and oil prices fell 5 percent. The euro fell to its lowest level against the dollar since May.
What began in recent days as anxiety about the solvency of Greece and the prospect of labor unrest there spread to worry about Portugal's budget and Spain's housing bubble, then to concerns about how Europe's richer nations might come to the rescue of weaker sisters sharing the common euro currency.
Investors fled to the relative safety of U.S. Treasury securities and drove down the value of the dollar, which could dampen the global appetite for U.S. exports needed to boost economic recovery in the United States.
Driven by concerns that stubborn 10 percent U.S. unemployment levels would further slow the recovery, President Obama met with congressional leaders Thursday about a new stimulus program as the Senate prepared to roll out an $81 billion jobs bill.
Some analysts said investors were taking profits in U.S. markets after stock advances in recent months. "We ran up way too fast," said Thomas Francis Nordby, a market strategist for Lind-Waldock. "There is a great deal of fear and anxiety back in the market." http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/04/AR2010020404536_pf.html
Afghanistan: Optimism Talking the Talk
The senior commander of American and allied forces in Afghanistan offered a guarded but unexpectedly upbeat assessment of the war effort on Thursday, saying that while the situation remained dangerous it was no longer deteriorating, and that the stage was set for “real progress.”
The commander, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, noted that last summer he believed that security in Afghanistan was at risk of significant decline, but said that he felt differently now. “I am not prepared to say that we have turned the corner,” he said. “So I’m saying that the situation is serious but I think we have made significant progress in setting the conditions in 2009, and beginning some progress, and that we’ll make real progress in 2010.”
General McChrystal’s assessment of the war came as NATO officials gathered here for a session in which Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates was expected to press allies for contributions of several thousand more trainers to expand and improve the Afghan Army and police forces. Although United States officials have expressed satisfaction with the number of combat troops entering the fight — the bulk, of course, coming from the additional American troops ordered to Afghanistan by President Obama — the mission to teach Afghan security forces and then deploy alongside them remains about 4,000 personnel short. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/05/world/asia/05gates.html?ref=global-home&pagewanted=print
However…
Political resistance is building in Afghanistan to President Hamid Karzai's two-track plan to end the war by negotiating with Taliban leaders while enticing their foot soldiers with the promise of jobs and development projects.
Decades of war have shaped a broad consensus that fighting cannot end the conflict in Afghanistan, but such early opposition to reconciliation with insurgents points to the difficult road ahead for a process Karzai has deemed a top priority in his second term.
Some worry that funneling millions of dollars into Taliban-held villages in the south could unfairly benefit ethnic Pashtuns and reward those who have fought the government. Others fear that accommodating the Taliban leadership could bring a retreat from women's rights. Former Taliban officials, meanwhile, say that without a shift in American policy, their commanders are unlikely to negotiate with the U.S.-backed government. "There is no clear strategy for negotiations," said Abdul Salam Zaeef, who served as ambassador to Pakistan under the Taliban government. "The Taliban were deceived so many times. They will not be deceived again and again. They need concrete guarantees." http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/03/AR2010020303737.html
GOP Chasing Wall Street: John Boehner making the case that Wall Street should rely on Republicans to block any reforms.
Republicans are stepping up their campaign to win donations from Wall Street, trying to capitalize on an increasing sense of regret among executives at big financial institutions for backing Democrats in 2008.
In discussions with Wall Street executives, Republicans are striving to make the case that they are banks' best hope of preventing President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats from cracking down on Wall Street.
GOP strategists hope to benefit from the reaction to the White House's populist rhetoric and proposals, which range from sharp critiques of bonuses to a tax on big Wall Street banks, caps on executive pay and curbs on business practices deemed too risky.
Democrats have dominated Wall Street's fund-raising circles in recent elections. Mr. Obama himself raised millions of dollars from employees of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and other Wall Street firms.
Now, at least some Wall Street executives have reduced their political contributions to the Democratic Party and its candidates, according to fund-raising reports and interviews with executives at financial-services firms.
Last week, House Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio made a pitch to Democratic contributor James Dimon, the chairman and chief executive of J.P. Morgan, over drinks at a Capitol Hill restaurant, according to people familiar with the matter.
Mr. Boehner told Mr. Dimon congressional Republicans had stood up to Mr. Obama's efforts to curb pay and impose new regulations. The Republican leader also said he was disappointed many on Wall Street continue to donate their money to Democrats, according to the people familiar with the matter. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703575004575043612216461790.html?mod=WSJ_WSJ_US_PoliticsNCampaign
Xmas Bomber Lessons: The FBI seems to have learned; the Intelligence agencies remain a problem (below)
The FBI has had it figured out for a while. They are leveraging their experience interrogating multiple terrorists over the past two decades along with knowledge gained since 9/11. The result: Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the would-be Christmas Day bomber, is talking. This after critics of the FBI's decisions led some pundits to assert that he clammed up or, worse, wasn't interrogated.
According to recent reporting from NPR's Dina Temple-Raston, FBI agents flew the would-be bomber's parents to the United States to speak with him. This is an effective, non-coercive interrogation technique used by every day detectives in the U.S., but also a legal, ethical approach found in the U.S. Army Field Manual for interrogations (in the Manual it's called "Love of Family").
… This is another traditional interrogation technique that plays on a detainee's ego. In the Army Field Manual it's called "Pride and Ego Up (or Down)." I suspect that the interrogators are discussing with Abdulmutallab his failure to ignite the explosives in his underwear.
The FBI interrogators are also reportedly using rapport based-techniques to gain Abdulmutallab's trust. It is a time-tested method of interrogation that is quick, efficient, and in accordance with American values. Those who supported the torture and abuse of detainees, such as former CIA Director General Michael Hayden, continue to spread fear and false information about law enforcement techniques (Hayden, in his latest Washington Post Op-Ed states that Abdulmutallab exercised his right to remain silent; he did, temporarily, and then began cooperating again). http://www.huffingtonpost.com/matthew-alexander/the-fbi-is-getting-it-rig_b_447837.html
Another concern is that Abdulmutallab was already known and being tracked by U.S. intelligence; they knew he was flying to Detroit. Yet, they allowed him to board the plane, allegedly hoping that he would lead them to the larger network. It raises questions as to why “Intelligence” would be willing to endanger the plane’s passengers. Why is there a “No-Fly List?” Those familiar with our history of rogue elements in our intelligence community wrecking havoc over the past decades understandably would wonder if this is another example of Those elements working at cross purposes as to our security and Obama’s reputation.
Testimony as to “Flight 253: Learning Lessons from an Averted Tragedy” was held last Wednesday the 27th before the Homeland Security Committee. http://homeland.house.gov/Hearings/index.asp?ID=234
Pakistan: 3 American Military Killed Special Ops trio’s presence reveals our ongoing presence, previously a badly kept secret
Three American soldiers were killed and two others injured today in a bomb attack that marked the first fatal Taliban ambush on the US military in Pakistan. Dozens of teenage girls were caught up in the blast outside their secondary school in Lower Dir, in the country's north-west. Three girls were killed along with one paramilitary force member. The father of one wounded girl likened the scene to "doomsday".
A Taliban spokesman claimed responsibility for the attack. "We will continue such attacks on Americans," Azam Tariq told Reuters.
The US embassy said the Americans had been assigned to help train the Frontier Corps, a paramilitary force deployed in the tribal belt along the Afghan border. Local reporters initially mistook them for western journalists as they were wearing civilian clothes and carrying cameras.
The explosion, which appeared to be a remote-control roadside bomb, happened as the force's convoy passed the Koto girls' high school, where teenagers were streaming out for their mid-morning break.
Television footage showed distressed villagers scrambling to pull wounded girls from the rubble of collapsed buildings amid scattered books and bags. "What was the fault of these students?" said Muhammad Dawood, a rescuer quoted by Associated Press.
[...]
The bombing shone a light on a little-publicised American military programme. The US defence department sees the Frontier Corps as a key element of Pakistan's fight against the Taliban in North West Frontier province, and has quietly pumped in millions of dollars and dozens of personnel to improve the force's capability. In most cases US personnel train senior Frontier Corps officers.
The attack also highlighted an even less well-known civilian aid scheme: a retired US official said the defence department had been discreetly funding development projects such as schools in North West Frontier for years. The targeted soldiers could have been going to the school in Dir as "a show of solidarity" with their Pakistani colleagues, he said.
Until today the only American serviceman to die at the hands of the Taliban in Pakistan was an airforce engineer killed in the 2008 Marriot hotel bombing. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/feb/03/pakistan-reports-death-mehsud-taliban
Juan Cole:
The fragile Pakistani government of Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani and President Asaf Ali Zardari was deeply embarrassed Wednesday when a massive bombing killed 3 US soldiers on the ground in that country. The Pakistani public has been increasingly upset about US military and para-military (Blackwater/ Xe) actions in their country. On Tuesday, several US drone strikes killed a total of 29 persons. The controversy over whether the US is actually fighting a third war, in Pakistan, may have been settled by the troop deaths.
…Many Pakistanis believe that the wave of bombings besetting their country, blamed by the mainstream on the Taliban, is secretly carried out by American agents, in order to destabilize Pakistan and justify a US imperial presence.
The bombing differs little from numerous other such attacks in the frontier badlands, but is distinctive because it accidentally revealed that some 200 US troops are on the ground in Pakistan, some 60-100 on a training mission. Those killed had been giving training and support to the Frontier Corps, a Pakistani unit charged with policing the lawless Pashtun areas on the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
The News says, "The US soldiers were apparently in the area to train the FC [Frontier Corps] personnel engaged in the military operation against the Taliban in Maidan, which is the native area of Tanzim Nifaz Shariat-e-Muhammadi's [Organization for the Implementation of the Law of Muhammad's] jailed chief Maulana Sufi Muhammad. The Taliban group in the area was commanded by Hafizullah, who had escaped the action."
The Daily Times notes that 'Local authorities appear confused by the foreign troops’ plans to attend the inauguration of the school, as "they had little role in the project."' http://readersupportednews.org/opinion/89-pakistan/172-us-soldiers-deaths-embarrass-us-and-pakistan
US-Russia Nuke Deal: Progress is always welcomed:
U.S. and Russian arms-control negotiators have reached an "agreement in principle" on the first nuclear-arms-reduction treaty in nearly two decades, administration and arms-control officials said Tuesday. The deal, which was widely expected, would bring down deployed nuclear warheads and sharply limit the number of missiles and bombers that can deliver them.
Rose Gottemoeller, the Obama administration's lead negotiator, flew to Geneva Monday to help draft the final text and begin what could still be an arduous process of translating the agreement into treaty language, an administration official said. "There may be finessing and fine-tuning, but the issues, from our perspective, are all addressed," the official added.
The deal would bring the ceiling for deployed nuclear weapons down to between 1,500 and 1,675 per side, from the 2,200 agreed to in 1991, but nuclear-delivery systems would fall more sharply, to between 700 and 800 each from the current limit of 1,600. In fact, both sides have already reduced their nuclear-armed bombers, submarines and missiles to below 1,000.
Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, a Washington-based advocacy group, said the agreement is a milestone, the first arms-control treaty to not only set goals on warhead deployments but to establish strict limits, with verification measures to hold each side to those limits. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703338504575041562540396530.html
Israeli: Israel Endangered Civilians in Gaza
A high-ranking officer has acknowledged for the first time that the Israeli army went beyond its previous rules of engagement on the protection of civilian lives in order to minimise military casualties during last year's Gaza war, The Independent can reveal.
The officer, who served as a commander during Operation Cast Lead, made it clear that he did not regard the longstanding principle of military conduct known as "means and intentions" - whereby a targeted suspect must have a weapon and show signs of intending to use it before being fired upon - as being applicable before calling in fire from drones and helicopters in Gaza last winter. A more junior officer who served at a brigade headquarters during the operation described the new policy - devised in part to avoid the heavy military casualties of the 2006 Lebanon war - as one of "literally zero risk to the soldiers".
The officers' revelations will pile more pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to set up an independent inquiry into the war, as demanded in the UN-commissioned Goldstone Report, which harshly criticised the conduct of both Israel and Hamas. One of Israel's most prominent human rights lawyers, Michael Sfard, said last night that the senior commander's acknowledgement - if accurate - was "a smoking gun". http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israeli-commander-we-rewrote-the-rules-of-war-for-gaza-1887627.html
Focus on the Family Super Bowl Ad The Tim
CBS's decision to air an anti-abortion ad during Sunday's Super Bowl has kicked off a contentious debate about the process through which the network vets advocacy advertisements, and has left pro-choice activists disagreeing on the best way to respond to this latest high-profile parry in the culture war, which reportedly cost Focus on the Family between $2.4 million and $2.8 million.
The spot has not been made public, but is expected to feature college football star Tim Tebow, winner of the Heisman Trophy, and his mother, Pam. In the ad, Pam will speak about her decision to go through with her 1987 pregnancy with Tim after contracting dysentery in the Philippines, despite advice from a doctor to end her pregnancy in order to protect her own health. According to Focus on the Family, the ad will not feature any explicit political message. Its tagline will be, "Celebrate family, celebrate life."
The major broadcast networks have avoided political advocacy ads for years, so CBS's decision to air the Tebow ad caught abortion rights advocates off guard. But Focus on the Family, the Colorado Springs-based conservative Christian group founded by Dr. James Dobson, says that it has actually been working closely with CBS executives for months on the ad's script. http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-02-02/the-making-of-cbss-pro-life-ad/?cid=hp:originalslist7
Scott Brown: Zealot? He was going to wait until next Thursday to be sworn in. Then, apparently Mitch McConnell and whomever else told him to get his rear end to D.C., as some votes were coming up. Brown dutifully complied, then made the statement that he doesn’t like the proposed jobs bill: not my type of legislation, he said, and besides, the Stimulus hadn’t created one job in Massachusetts.
Memo to Scott: Don’t Forget you’re “independent!”
Fox News: A Success How do we know? Tuesday’s Daily Kos poll of Republicans found that 31% believe Obama is a racist; 63% think he’s a socialist; 39% believe he should be impeached; and, only 42% believe he was born in the USA. www.dailykos.com
-R
